The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has said that “The probability of seeing a contraction of output in 2011 as compared to 2010 has risen from 14 per cent to 19 per cent”.
The NIESR is also of the opinion that any growth we have experienced this year that “Economic growth this year has so far been supported by government current and capital spending and a slowing pace of destocking”. It goes on to say that it thinks that consumer spending will not get back to previous levels until about 2015.
Even more bearish comments came from the American investor and financial commentator Jim Rogers. Born in Baltimore, Rogers started his business life early by selling peanuts at the age of five. Then after getting degrees from Yale and Oxford he joined Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder in 1970 and co-founded the international Quantum Fund.
Rogers says that we are a scant two years away from another recession, but the world won’t be able to deal with it as it has “shot all its bullets”.
Speaking to CNBC Rogers said that there had been a recession every four to six years “since the beginning of time” so one should be due in 2012.
The co-founder of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Schiller house price index, Robert Schiller, has also waded into the mix and said that the next downturn may be sooner than we think. “For me a double-dip is another recession before we’ve healed from this recession. The probability of that kind of double-dip is more than 50pc. I actually expect it“.
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UK alcohol consumption drops
Tags: business, double dip, economics, finance, Jim Rogers, News, NIESR, Politics, QE, recession, Robert Schiller
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UK alcohol consumption drops
And Gordon Brown replied