Mike Paterson’s daily Forex brief
The US Non-Farm Payrolls data didn’t disappoint on Friday, either in detail or effect. A much better than expected number of +243k, compared to the best estimates of 170k that I mentioned, came in with the unemployment rate at 8.3%, the best since Feb 2009.
EURUSD tried to breach 1.3200 again on initial overall euphoria for the bigger global picture but soon ran out steam and the market bought a few USD instead, particularly USDJPY which rose rapidly from 76.10 to 76.65.EURUSD went down to 1.3066 briefly then flicked back up to 1.3160, but has since fallen in late NY and Asia to current levels around 1.3035 with volatile two-way business being seen.
The fall in the Euro has had as much to do with the on-going uncertainty over the Greek debt talks which unsurprisingly have made no advances. The Greek government partners are still not agreed on the level of spending cuts and this is holding back negotiations with the Troika who allegedly are reported to have talked of “catastrophic conditions” in Greece.
EURGBP has fallen again below 0.8300 (GBPEUR up through 1.2048) and sits around 0.8280 (1.2077). Buy orders still reported to be in place around 0.8265 (resistance at 1.2100) but with anticipated stop-loss sell orders on EURUSD just below here around 1.3020 and buy orders on GBPUSD between 1.5700-20 we could see an attack on this level today.
Little in the way of data today with just German Factory Orders this morning but tonight we have the Aussie interest rate decision where many analysts are looking for a 0.25% cut to 4%.
We’ve been in relatively tight ranges for a while and there seems little really to change that right now. But stay tuned ‘cos anything is possible in these markets.
Unlike England’s chances of pulling off an improbable victory in the 3rd Test being 151-4 as I sign off. But we saw a weekend of fine sporting comebacks to warm us up in these cold times unless of course you’re a Chelsea, Patriots or Shrimpers fan to mention but a few!
Have a good week out there.
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Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.
To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email email@example.com
The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.