Mike Paterson’s daily Forex brief

We had the usually nutty Friday fare with the Euro finding support from reports that the Greek government and the IIF were close to a new debt-swap deal agreement. Later on in thin NY trading we saw EURUSD breach a big resistance level at 1.3200 but since then solid selling interest from corporate and real money players has capped the move in Asia below the next technical resistance at 1.3245.

And now, amid reports that the Greek government are furious (bless ‘em) over suggestions that they may be forced to accept EU budgetary control from Germany in return for the € 130 billion bail-out despite admissions from the PM that they’re on the brink of bankruptcy, EUR/USD is back under 1.3200 and currently sits on session lows in European trading 100 points lower at 1.3132. Looks like the roller-coaster ride continues for a while yet with good size Middle Eastern buying down here I’m told.

EU leaders will meet in Brussels tonight amid growing concern that Greece will fail to implement the austerity measures its international backers are demanding as a condition of the latest package of financial support. Without that bail-out, Greece will be unable to repay €15 billion of loans due in March. And it’s reported that German Chancellor Merkel has been talking of putting together plans for Greece to exit the Eurozone.

EURGBP breached good resistance at 0.8400 (1.1905) but this morning has come back down to 0.8377 (1.1937) on the Euro-negative news with EURJPY trading lower and EURAUD a tad higher after Fitch put four major Australian banks on negative watch. EURCHF is perched on the 1.2050 level where it’s rumoured there is some strong buy interest, possibly SNB.

GBPUSD has failed to stay above 1.5700 again but the Pound overall is a mixed bag this morning.

Little in the way of data today but US personal spending and income numbers out later may have some impact on what will otherwise be a rhetoric-dominated day and a typically muddled Monday.

Talking of muddled I’m wondering how are our cricketers are feeling today as it seems I was right not to get over-excited about England’s commanding start to the latest Test against Pakistan. Even the non-cricket loving readers amongst you will not have failed to hear how we got spun out for an abysmal 72 to suffer a 2-0 series defeat. Oh well, I’ll just be able to focus on the glorious exploits of the mighty Shrimpers instead.

Have a good week everyone.

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.

To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com

The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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------ Other articles of interest ------

• The Euro takes another hit as Greece goes back to the polling stations-UK waits on BOE inflation report
• Markets still wait on Greece and key US data this afternoon

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This entry was posted on Monday, January 30th, 2012 at 10:33 am and is filed under Business & Finance, News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.