According to Rightmove.co.uk 53% of Brits believe that house prices will rise this year which is way above the 10% who were convinced prices would rise a year ago.
The new boost in confidence is due to the apparent improving economic outlook for the United Kingdom in 2010. But how much of this is wishful thinking?
The government has already proved that it is prepared to penalise savers and do anything to keep the housing market afloat even at the expense of the wider economy but the question remains, how much longer can interest rates remain low for?
With the base rate being kept at an artificially low level, it would be a gamble on your personal finances to jump back into the housing market based on the belief that interest rates will remain low over any medium to long term period.
Anyone who jumps into the housing market during these unstable times is taking a risk and if they come off the worse for it, the tax payer and savers should not have to foot the bill (again).
If this is the new age of austerity then the British public need to understand that putting a mortgage (millstone) around your neck is not putting a millstone around everyone else’s neck.
How many savers and pensioners have eaten into their savings thanks to low interest rates? House prices should have been left to crash. If you took the risk of buying at peak then you must be prepared to take the fall.
OK maybe that is a bit harsh considering the level of media influence bombarding us to buy property because you’re safe with bricks and mortar and house prices only everv go up. Couple that with the banks willingness to lend to absolutely anyone regardless of their ability to honour the debt and you have a recipe for a housing boom that will continue to rise as long as the banks continue to lend recklessly.
But the banks have been burnt and the lenders have no inclination to return to the halcyon days of the 2007 housing boom.
Have no doubt that interest rates will go up and probably quite sharply during the period of your mortgage repayment, so do you want to take the risk? And if so do you think that the tax payer will be there to bail you out for a second time?
Then there is Government debt, the cost of which looks set to go up. That always means higher mortgage rates as the money chases the higher returns.
Also if you’re that confident on house price rises because you have seen signs of recovery in the economy then think again.
This year we will see sweeping public sector departmental cuts and that means higher unemployment and that means less people able to pay their mortgages and I don’t think I need to say what the knock on effect of that will be.
Then of course you must actually try and buy a house.
For that you need a mortgage, which today requires a deposit of anywhere between £50,000 to £70,000 for an average priced house unless you want to pay sky high interest repayments and with job security looking very uncertain for anyone who works for the public sector (and many private sector areas too) the prospect for large swathes of the population facing repossession is a very real one. a good measureb of the industries take on this is to look at the cost of Redundancy insurance at the moment, or even if it is available.
------ Other articles of interest ------
Why are house prices defying gravity?
BlockbusterAre lenders about to start lending again?
Freeing up the housing market
Tags: Comment, house price crash, House Prices, housing market, interest rates, Mortgages, News, Property Market, Property Prices, rightmove.co.uk
Interesting headline/article in todays Telegraph
Mortgages: more than quarter of SVRs are 5pc or higher
More than a quarter of all mortgage lenders charge at least 5 per cent on their standard variable rates, equating to ten times the official Bank Rate.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/7071454/Mortgages-more-than-quarter-of-SVRs-are-5pc-or-higher.html
Interest rates: the only way is up!
I suspect Leo that is due to the competition for investors’ money. Why would they give it to a mortgage provider for less than 0.5% if they can get a better return for Gilts or equities?
Jeff:
One possible ‘good’ aspect of the crunch – is that savers are being forced into being more proactive in searching for a good deal. Perhaps we’d been blase in the past.
It used to be that a bank / b.s. would offer a good, market leading rate and after a couple of months cut that rate back to below average (or base rate). ie offer a loss leading initial rate. Now us savers are keeping a better eye and when a good rate is ending switch to another provider. The result is yes more competition but also a lack of funding stability for mortgage providers. This is, together with ‘risk’ increasing the spread between savings & lending rates.
How can I explain. If a while back you were getting say 5% & it dropped to a base rate of 4% you might not be bothered with the hassle of switching. But if you are getting say 3% & it drops to base (0.5%) you act. At least I do.
I agree Leo, especially where those savings are a pensioners income for example. They are desperate not to touch the capital so need every percentage point in interest returns they can get.
Near zero supply of desirable homes and plenty of people and couples on £30-40-60K…Nothing is going down.
Single and on a lowish wage? Forget it! You’re up against imigrants sharing 10 per house and those on housing benefit (at more than your gross earnings)
You’ve been screewed by Labour – get over it.