Iran has declared its intention to defy the world and has unveiled plans for ten new uranium enrichment sites. This move comes after the otherwise reluctant Chinese and Russians backed the US, British, French and German call for an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolution censuring Iran and calling for it to halt construction of its Qom uranium enrichment plant. Only Venezuela, Cuba and Malaysia backed Iran, the resolution was passed.
David Albright, founder and president of the non-governmental Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), warned earlier this year that Iran could reach the first level of ‘breakout capability this year (2009). That is, have enough low-enriched uranium to make one nuclear weapon. The Washington Post also reported on the 15th of June 2008 a claim by Albright that Iran may have access to advanced warhead plans. Iran is also thought to have obtained various components that may be nuclear warhead related that could be used in their two-stage Sejil-2 missile system, range in the region of 1,200 miles.
Iran claims that their nuclear programme is for domestic power production and medical radioactive products. Iran’s oil will run out one day and, although it also has huge gas reserves, a move to an alternative power source could be seen as moves to prepare for the inevitable.
But Albright has also said that Iran does not have access to enough domestic or imported yellowcake to provide for a sustained civil electricity programme. It does though he said have enough to make a number of warheads. If true this would make a nonsense of the Iranian claim of a peaceful aim for their nuclear project.
But as the west has found, running a credible nuclear force is an extremely expensive occupation and without physical testing will never be guaranteed. Unless of course you have access to previous testing data and the relevant highly classified computer modelling software. Or you are prepared to detonate one or two on your own territory first, easily detectable by satellites. There is also the question of hardened silos for missiles etc. The Iranian economy may not be able to sustain this over the long term.
Juan Cole of the Global Americana Institute says that the Iranian aim may be the middle course of attaining ‘nuclear latency’ otherwise called the ‘Japan Option’. This is where they have the capability to produce weapons and militarise them quickly without actually producing them. That way they do not possess the weapons but keep potential opponents guessing. By building so many sites nothing short of a massive pre-emptive attack could prevent them. It also gives Iran leverage without the expense of maintaining a nuclear force.
The danger for the West though is that once Iran has the capability how will we know if they progress beyond nuclear latency?
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Tags: david albright, global americana institute, iaea, iran, isis, juan cole, News, nuclear latency, nuclear weapons, Politics, yellowcake
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