Mike Paterson’s daily Forex brief

After last week's stop-start trading patterns and equity market weakness we've started this week in an altogether calmer mode once more, but we can expect volatile days ahead.


The FTSE has rallied to 5110 in line with Asian markets as risk-on trades return to the market with EURUSD breaching 1.4400 in a bid to reach the top-end of the recent 1.4000-1.4500 range as European stocks also open higher. Talk remains of China being the player trying to keep EURUSD in this tight range to protect its own interests and certainly seems to be doing a good job at the moment.

GBPUSD has made another attack on 1.6500 but failed for the moment bringing EURGBP back up to overnight highs of 0.8745 (GBPEUR down to 1.1434) after the latest attempts to break lower through strong support around 0.8650 (GBPEUR resistance 1.1560).Overall the Pound has given up a few of its gains of last week and the jury remains out whether the UK will attract fresh money on a consistent basis or just any port in a storm temporary attractions.

The apparent taking of Tripoli by the rebels has assuaged certain fears amidst hopes that the conflict is at an end, but as in all these situations the aftermath is as/more important than the build-up and Middle Eastern tensions remain an area of focus. This is perhaps reflected in the continuing demand for gold which has once again seen new record highs of $1895 even though oil has moved lower.

Nothing of note today by way of data so traders will keep an eye on stock markets and fresh rhetoric as well as the Middle East, but it appears that the majority will be quite content with an easy day.

Similarly England's cricketers will be looking to wrap up a 4-0 series win with some early wickets. Cricket lovers amongst us though will hope that Tendulkar uses the final day to finally bag his 100th international century, a quite remarkable achievement. Apart from his poor form of late his biggest problem may be running out of batting partners.

And let no one say I've taken my eye off the (foot)ball. After a promising start with 2 wins from 2 games the mighty Shrimpers of Southend have now lost the following two with some awful displays. Oh, the joys of following the beautiful game at the cutting edge!

Have a good week.

Today's Data:

Weekly Economic Calendar-HERE

Interbank Rates as of 08.48 BST

Current Price

Overnight

High

Low

EUR/USD

1.4404

1.4409

1.4347

GBP/USD

1.6491

1.6512

1.6458

EUR/GBP

0.8737

0.8745

0.8695

GBP/EUR

1.1445

1.1501

1.1434

GBP/CHF

1.2948

1.3037

1.2922

GBP/AUD

1.5812

1.5910

1.5794

EUR/CHF

1.1312

1.1382

1.1265

GBP/HKD

12.7860

12.8020

12.7600

GBP/ZAR

11.8427

11.9223

11.7733

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.
To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com
The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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