While most of us are staring at what appears to be a big black economic hole, one pundit takes another view.
In a piece called ‘Buy the Sun Hats When It’s Raining’, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader John Thomas, says that the outlook for shares still looks bullish.
But when it does come the crash could be spectacular.
‘I believe that we can eke out a few more quarters of 2% ish type growth before we put in the final top of the great bull market of 2009-2012.’ He says in his blog ‘I think a real crash of the 50% variety will be a 2012 affair, not something that is on the plate in front of us staring back.’
He points to two major developments to back up his thoughts.
The first is that Ford and GM earnings are telling a story of a serious recovery with 13.5 million units being produced this year ‘looking like a sure thing’.
The second is that the data coming out of Japan indicates that the second half of a V shaped recovery has started earlier than expected.
As he points out, recessions don’t just happen. There are many leading indicators to them that are not there at the moment he says. Indicators like rail car loadings, FedEx deliveries and sea container utilisation rates.
Referring to the recent off a cliff fall of the markets, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader is of the opinion that ‘…much of the decline can be attributed to program and high frequency trading, margin calls, forced liquidation, and other Wall Street fun and games’.
This puts stocks well in the buy bracket at the moment as far as he is concerned.
But then there is 2012 to watch out for.