Alessio Rastani has risen to fame after his appearance on the BBC where he said Goldman Sachs rules the world and the Euro will collapse.
The trouble is no one is now taking him as seriously as they did on the first viewing because Alessio Rastani is not, it has transpired, FSA regulated and he is 'just' a small time trader.
But he is still an independent trader who said in public what most traders in the employment of large financial institutions would not dare say for fear of losing their jobs.
I speak to economists and traders every day and to be quite honest they are saying the same thing as Alessio said but in confidence for fear of losing credibility with their employers and clients, which could have a negative outcome on their very own financial position.
Lets take a look at what Alessio said and if it tallies up with the sentiment of other traders.
Well just look at the results of a poll ran by Bloomberg released today. Apparently 30% of traders and questioned said they think there will be a global financial meltdown in the next 12 months as opposed to just 18% back in May.
43% of traders and investors believed that there would be a recession in the next year whilst 70% said a recession would hit in the next 5 years.
So the difference between the remarks of Alessio Rastani and the traders polled by Bloomberg seem to be quite comfortable bed fellows.
Every trader and economist I have spoken to all say the same thing (without exception), Europe is toast and the big money is not interested in any long investment position in the Eurozone.
And yes there are traders who are very much looking forward to a recession because that simply means betting against the growth by investing in those sectors which do very well during a recession.
These new sectors (which I would love to mention….and will soon) will be where the money will flood to once the Eurozone collapses but it might be a bit difficult if you don't have the funds available upfront…..don't forget liquidity is running on empty.
As for the Goldman Sachs ruling the world…..I think he should have mentioned a few other banks (that shall not be named) first, after all it is not just Goldman Sachs who has benefited from the recapitalisation, it is just about every bank across the planet that has in effect been bailed out be it directly or indirectly.
But back to plot, here are some of the reasons that most traders and economists don't see the Euro surviving another 12 months:
1. The 2 trillion Euros proposed for a future bailout might meet with stiff opposition from Germany…that might be one vote Merkel won't be able to force through.
2. The aforementioned bailout fund of 2 Trillion Euros won't be enough cover Greece running into trouble, let alone Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.
3. Greece can't pay back it's current debt and the GreekÂ people have no desire to pay it back.
4. The level of exposure to Greek debt is not truly known and mediocre stress tests are not sufficient in establishing whether or not a bank can survive a Greek default let alone a pan-European default.
What is surprising and might come as a bit of a shock is the level of worry expressed by the traders and economists over the democratic rail-roading in order for politicians to attain funds from the taxpayer to keep the political project that is the EU and Eurozone afloat.
This is not as unexpected as one might think though because the UK as a financial hub is now under threat from the EU with the latest transaction tax proposal.
The fact is we all lose under European rule….