UPDATED BY WORLD RECORD POLITICAL WAGER: Last week the bookies got the result of the Newark by-election correct , but will the same hold true for the vote on Scottish independence in a few months time on 18th September 2014?
Here's what William Hill said yesterday on the odds of the Yes vs No campaigns:
During 2014 the odds for a Yes vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum have steadily shortened, from a longest price of 7/2 to as short as 9/4, but during the last few days, the tide has turned again and now a Yes vote has drifted back out to 11/4, while the odds for 'No' have shortened up from 1/3 to 1/ 4.
'We thought that the odds may continue to level out, but in recent days we have seen bets of up to four figures staked on No while Yes has been friendless' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe. '55.4% of the bets we have taken online – which is where most of the bets are being placed – have been for No.'
The two largest bets struck for a Yes vote have each been £5000, while one man in a William Hill Glasgow betting shop gambled £200,000 – believed to be the largest political bet ever struck – that the outcome of the Referendum would be a vote AGAINST Independence.
'We have never taken a bigger bet than this on any political subject.' continued Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe. 'The man, in his late fifties, with a pronounced Scottish accent, and a stranger to staff, struck one bet of £30,000 at odds of 1/5, then returned to place another, of £70,000 at the same odds, before placing a third, of £100,000 at odds by now shortened to 1/6. He stands to make a total profit of £36,666.'
William Hill are also betting on the voting turnout at the Referendum – making 66% or more their 1/2 favourite, with Under 66% a 6/4 shot. And it is 4/6 that 41% or more will vote Yes, 11/10 fewer than 41%.
Scottish Independence Referendum – 1/4 NO; 11/4 YES.
William Hill has updated the odds today (10th Jun 11:17 am) after a huge world record political bet bet was placed on a NO result.
A William Hill customer from Surrey has placed what is believed to be the largest political bet ever staked.
The middle aged man wagered £400,000 at odds of 1/4 that the Scottish Independence Referendum will produce a NO result today when he visited a Hill's betting shop in South West London to place the bet via a banker's draft.
The man, who does not have a Scottish accent, stands to make a profit of £100,000.
'As far as we can ascertain this is the biggest political bet ever struck' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.'The previous record was a £200,000 bet also struck on a No vote in the Scottish Referendum earlier in the campaign, and the same amount was gambled by a customer who backed David Cameron to become Tory Leader.'
WILLIAM HILL HAVE NOW SHORTENED THEIR ODDS FOR A NO VOTE FROM 1/ 4 TO 1/5 AND OFFER 10/3 (from 11/4) THAT THERE WILL BE A YES VOTE.
'We are now well on the way to turning over £1million on the outcome of the Scottish Referendum which is exceeding our expectations.' added Sharpe.