Last week the PM's new adviser, Dominic Cummings, said that a no deal Brexit could not be stopped and although one Tory MP begs to differ, the result could be a November General Election.

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Calling Dominic Cummings the 'master of disinformation', the former Tory Attorney General and Remainer MP, Dominic Grieve, said that it was not too late to stop a no-deal Brexit.

And as far as I can see it all hinges on having a vote of no confidence in the government, Boris Johnson losing and then the Remain MPs getting together to form a new government to get an Article 50 extension and another referendum.

That way, no general election is required.

Now, that's a tall order. Especially as I have pointed out before, Jeremy Corbyn is the one person who could table an official motion of no confidence in the government and he will only do so if he either thinks he will be at the head of the new government or it would spark a general election. I cannot personally see Corbyn triggering a vote of no confidence in the knowledge that the House of Commons is plotting to replace both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.

Anyway, new information has come out on this.

The BBC reports Catherine Haddon from the Institute for Government saying that while this approach is possible it relies on the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, resigning once he had lost the vote. But there is no requirement for him to do so. He could just wait out the full two week period allowed, trying to regain the confidence of the House. Then if he hasn't regained that confidence, a general election will be triggered.

Then the government could ensure that the general election took place in November after the UK had left on a no deal Brexit basis.

Catherine Haddon said:

"The problem there is it requires the sitting prime minister to resign, and because it is untested territory we don't know how that might work.

"If you go back over history, certainly when governments have lost confidence that's been the presumption – but the other presumption has been that if they wanted to go to the people they could.

"He could say: 'No, I'm staying as prime minister and we're having a general election'."

That would require the dissolution of parliament from mid September until after Brexit day. And because parliament would be dissolved then the amendments included in the recent Norther Ireland power sharing Act to recall a prorogued parliament, would not apply.

For that reason the Remainer based House of Commons might decide to keep Boris in place to stay and fight it out with the government all the way to the wire using all the flexibility in the House of Commons rule book they can find or engineer with the help of the Speaker, John Bercow.

And get this, we might even see a vote of no confidence lost by Boris, he stays in place and the Remain MPs use the two weeks allowed before an election is triggered to try and stop a no deal and, if they fail they could well pass a vote of confidence in the Boris administration right at the end of the two week period in order to prevent parliament being shut down, so they can continue the fight!

But many believe even staying there to the end would prove fruitless, as all that they would achieve is being sat there, powerless to act as the UK sailed out of the EU on the 31st of October, deal or no deal.

Then with Brexit achieved, Boris could call for a vote on having a General Election – whether at that stage he would get the required two thirds of MPs to vote for it is another question.

So, either way we could well be on for a post Brexit November General Election.

And there is now mounting speculation that that is the plan. Get out, then immediately go to the people while Labour is in total disarray and both the Lib Dems and The Brexit Party have lost their Brexit based reasons for existing.

Maybe the Lib Dems need to start looking at Article 49 of the Lisbon Treaty and start a 'Rejoin Campaign'.

Sources:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49225906

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-no-deal-boris-johnson-dominic-grieve-collapse-government-election-a9039121.html

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