It is the job of an out-going Prime Minister to recommend to the Monarch who should be appointed as the next PM, but only if they can command a majority in the House of Commons.

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If the Evening Standard is correct in its assessment of the situation, the UK could be headed for an imminent General Election.

According to its editorial the Cabinet Secretary, Sir Mark Sedwill, has told Theresa May that, as the out-going PM, her final job would be to recommend to the Queen who she should appoint into Number Ten, it doesn't just happen.

And that person, says the Evening Standard, "…must be the person who can command a majority in the House of Commons".

As the piece points out, in normal times the winner of a general election or of an internal party leadership contest would be the obvious choice.

But at present we have a hung parliament that relies on a £1 billion two year confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP that is now expiring.

And we also have some Tory MPs that could well vote against their own government, if the new PM pursued a no-deal Brexit, with too few on the other side, if any, that would be prepared to prop up a Tory government.

And given that both the remaining candidates have said they could end up taking the UK out of the EU without a deal, that puts the surety of any majority in doubt.

"What all this shows," Says the Evening Standard, "is that the new leader of the Conservative Party is unlikely to have a majority for his central policy come the autumn, and may not have a majority this July full stop."

It could well fall on Theresa May to recommend to the Queen that she asks Jeremy Corbyn to try and put a majority together and, if he can't, then we are in general election territory.

So, while Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are knocking lumps out of each other, the keys to Number Ten may be slipping from both their grasp.

Now, the latest poll from YouGov on Westminster voting intentions puts The Brexit Party still in the lead with 23%, the Lib Dems now only two points behind on 21% and the Tories and Labour in joint third with 20% apiece. The Greens are next with 9%.

YouGov Westminster Voting Intentions Graph 21-06-19

As you can see from the graph, the potential of ending up with no single party being able to command a majority is an emerging reality.

Who would end up with the most seat? Jeremy Corbyn? Nigel Farage? Or the winner of either the Tory or Lib Dem leadership races.

It would all depend on how these averages played out across the constituencies and also if certain parties made the sacrifice of standing down in certain seats.

If a general election begins to look more likely as the Tory leadership contest continues, we may well see serious inter party horse trading start, together with policy shifts to adopt a more pro or anti-Brexit stance.

And I bet you thought this mess just couldn't get any worse – and all because our politicians steadfastly refuse to deliver a proper Brexit!

Sources:

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-may-s-last-decision-could-be-her-most-important-a4174446.html

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/voting-intention-brex-23-lib-dem-21-lab-20-con-20-

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