Ajax Bay Field Hospital June 1982 By Ken Griffiths (CC-BY-SA-4.0)

Ajax Bay field hospital (Red and Green Life Machine) during the Falklands war 1982. By Ken Griffiths – Griffiths911 (CC-BY-SA-4.0)

The Argentine foreign minister has said that any uncertainty around a no deal Brexit could be exploited by his country to gain control of the Falkland Islands.

PLEASE WATCH THE VIDEO BELOW

Jorge Faurie has indicated that any weaker diplomatic ties between the UK and the EU27 after a no deal Brexit, could be used to Argentina's benefit with reference to control of the Falkland Islands.

Now, in a no deal WTO Brexit situation the UK will have full control over its own foreign and defence policy and the Falkland Islands will remain an overseas territory of the UK.

But also, in that circumstance, far from the EU27 distancing themselves from us, I believe that both sides will be on a charm offensive to get as good a relationship as two close but sovereign and independent entities can, for good sound economic and political reasons.

In short, I don't think a WTO only relationship would last that long.

The EU is also soon to be the one dictating the foreign and defence policy for all of its 27 remaining member states, but it will still need the UK to be a part of that defence structure when needed. So upsetting us with talk of handing the Falkland Islands over, with I might add no legal justification, may not be as high on the EU Commission list as Buenos Aires thinks it is.

In fact, the Chequers Brexit In Name Only might well be a better vehicle for Argentina in that respect as far as I can see.

Veterans for Britain has put out a detailed paper called "Chequers Dangers for UK Defence".

In it the authors Professor Gwythian Prins, Lt-Gen Jonathon Riley and Maj-Gen Julian Thompson lay out how Theresa May's deal means a permanent loss of UK sovereign foreign policy autonomy and of UK political powers over its defence establishment – and that's just for starters.

And where in the overall scheme of EU foreign and defence policy do you think the Falkland Islands would feature?

I'm planning on doing a separate video for this in the near future, but suffice to say that defence of the realm is another good reason to chuck Chequers!

Moving on, the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has been across to see Michel Barnier, the EU chief Brexit negotiator, as well as other senior EU people and basically called on them to push for an extension of the Article 50 process, so that Brexit can be delayed to give time for a second EU referendum to be held.

"I hope Michel Barnier and the EU will agree to start preparing now to extend Article 50." He said.

There go the Remainers again, undermining the UK negotiators – not that they actually seem to need much help in being undermined as they appear to have been sat on the same side of the table as Michel Barnier for the last few months, don't they?!

But wouldn't Khan's time be better spent trying to sort out crime in London?

And can you credit it? According to one Tory MP, Brexiteer Daniel Kawczynski, the PM managed to improve her standing with her back benchers during that 1922 Committee meeting.

Theresa May strengthened her position during the course of the meeting. She said something very important and other MPs echoed it.

“Basically we need to get behind the team captain, allow her to negotiate on behalf of the UK, then bring back the final settlement and then we as individual MPs will have to decide whether or not we can support that deal.” He said.

That deal is already just about dead, except for the scare-mongering now being aimed at the no-deal option, and when it gets to Brussels Chequers can only be watered down further making it even more unacceptable.

Now I don't want Chequers, but it has to be said that every day it remains in place, it means the chances of a full no deal WTO Brexit increases.

And maybe that's why the Tory Brexiteers are holding back at the moment.

Now, while the Remainers on this side of the English Channel chunter on about lorries backing up and warning us that the French will play silly games and impose a go-slow on traffic flowing through ports like Calais, those on the other side of La Manche however have different ideas.

The BBC reports that the president of the Hauts de France regions, Xavier Bertrand, stated that maintaining fluidity of trade was essential, while another official is quoted as saying that it would be economic suicide to close Calais to UK traffic.

And the representative for Hauts de France in the UK, Jen-Paul Mulot, said that while a no-deal brexit situation may bring delays, it was in the interests of France to see these are minimised.

As the MP for Dover, Charlie Elphicke, says it's just Remainer scare-mongering that has been proved as untrue.

But now we have new fodder for the Remainer project fear instruction book.

According to analysis by the campaign group 'Our Future, Our Choice' (OFOC) a group calling for this 'People's Vote' thing, which says in the case of a no deal Brexit, young people are going to be hit with up to a £108,000 reduction in their earnings by the year 2050 compared to Remaining in the EU.

And their claims for the Chequers based deal are nearly as bad.

However, there is something in there that I do question on how it is presented.

On page six of the report it talks about young people losing £108,000 in earnings in a worst case scenario. But in table 3 on page 17 you find that the £108,000 figure is a projected loss of Gross Domestic Product per capita up to 2050 – not direct wages, there is a big difference.

And the prominent name used to front this? John Major! With endorsement from Tony Blair.

Don't these people realise that as soon as we're freed from the clutches of the EU we can change our laws and taxes and make trade when and where we want without external interference.

Their predictions are based on what they think might happen and most such predictions do not survive first contact with reality, let alone thirty plus years hence.

And the basis of the whole piece of research was the leaked cross Whitehall briefing from earlier in the year which covers the first 15 years after Brexit only, with this later report just extrapolating the exact same results on for the remaining half of the timeframe to 2050.

And the report rounds off talking about a post Brexit recession, just like people talked about a post 'not going into the euro' recession and a post 'EU referendum vote' recession.

I'll leave you to take a look at the report, if you can be bothered, and make your own mind up – but I think you can tell what I think of it.

Sources:

Chequers dangers for UK Defence – briefing paper

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/argentina-falkland-islands-brexit-no-deal-malvinas-jeremy-hunt-faurie-south-atlantic-talks-a8602331.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1036648/Brexit-news-latest-update-theresa-may-eu-michel-barnier-second-referendum

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45990243

https://www.ofoc.co.uk/report

https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/Exiting-the-European-Union/17-19/Cross-Whitehall-briefing/EU-Exit-Analysis-Cross-Whitehall-Briefing.pdf

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