Mike Paterson’s daily Forex brief

It's risk-off again as we go into the last day of the month/quarter and a combination of lack of action, continuing Eurozone bickering and a downgrade of New Zealand external debt to AA from AA+ by S&P have all combined to bring more bearish sentiment to the market.

EURUSD has been down to 1.3488 overnight before some Middle East sovereign buying has dragged it back up to 1.3520 as I type. GBPUSD has been down to 1.5540 after failing to breach the 1.5710-20 level yesterday where I said there were good name sellers poised to come in (see,. I don't make this stuff up!). We should expect the rallies to be sold on both pairs.

EURGBP has come down to the bottom end of its recent range around 0.8680 (GBPEUR up to 1.1520) despite the month-end Bundesbank buying as we hear talk of a large sell interest from a UK clearer. Given that the BUBA are likely to be in buying a bit more today it should be an interesting time, or just produce a stalemate with one side soaking up the other.

The Pound has benefitted overall from these moves as other currencies get targeted as a first option sell and spotlights continue to remain elsewhere, particularly a weakening in commodity currencies.

Gold has stabilized above $1600 and stock markets are off their lows but to me still look vulnerable to further falls. Keep selling the rallies is my mantra and it's working nicely so far.

Various bits of data out today to keep the pot boiling and we should expect some month/quarter end USD and JPY demand from hedge-fund repatriations.

And it's Friday, so stand by for some more fun and games before we get a chance to enjoy the week-end sun!

Today's Data:


Live Economic Calendar Powered by Forexpros – The Leading Financial Portal

Weekly Economic CalendarHERE

Interbank Rates as of 08.36 BST

Current Price

Overnight

High

Low

EUR/USD

1.3516

1.3602

1.3487

GBP/USD

1.5570

1.5628

1.5540

EUR/GBP

0.8680

0.8712

0.8675

GBP/EUR

1.1520

1.1528

1.1478

GBP/CHF

1.4040

1.4062

1.3995

GBP/AUD

1.5979

1.6016

1.5917

EUR/CHF

1.2188

1.2204

1.21779

GBP/HKD

12.0714

12.1164

12.0481

GBP/ZAR

12.4668

12.5042

12.3650

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.
To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com
The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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