The expected Lib Dem victory in Thursday's Welsh by-election, would see the Tory majority in the House of Commons slashed in half.


With the Lib Dem candidate, Jane Dodds, favourite to take the Brecon and Radnorshire seat from the Tories in this Thursday's by-election, Boris Johnson is bracing himself to have his Commons majority sliced down to just one.

At the moment, discounting the seven Sinn Fein MPs who can't take their seats as they refuse to take the parliamentary oath and the Speaker and his three deputies who do not vote, the combined Tory and DUP vote is 320.

And until the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election is held, there are potentially 318 MPs who would vote against the government, that's just a majority of just two for Boris Johnson.

So if the Lib Dems take that seat on Thursday, then the that opposition number is increased to 319 versus the Tory and DUP 320.

So Boris would be over the moon, if his team were able to win the day and increase the Tory/DUP majority to three.

But the one fly in the ointment for the new PM is Nigel Farage and The Brexit Party.

Farage has put up a candidate for the by-election – former police officer Des Parkinson, which potentially splits the Brexit vote with the Tories, while the Greens and Plaid have stood aside to put their weight behind the Lib Dems to concentrate the Remain vote behind one candidate.

Boris Johnson also has another problem. The local Tory constituency party put forward the same candidate, Chris Davies, that won the seat for them in 2017. But it is due to his expenses activities and subsequent unseating via the recall procedure, that has caused this by-election and that will have put him on the back foot.

So this seat may be a bridge too far for the Conservative Party, even taking the 'Boris Bounce' into account.

It is therefore unsurprising that Boris Johnson has called on supporters of The Brexit Party to vote for his man on Thursday, saying:

"A vote for any party other than Conservatives pushes the Liberal Democrats one step closer to cancelling the referendum result.

"The Brexit Party cannot deliver Brexit, only the Conservatives can."

And the BBC reported a couple of days ago that it was informed by unnamed sources that the Tories did approach Nathan Gill of The Brexit Party to ask them not to put a candidate up. But the local Tory party constituency chairman, Peter Weavers, has denied the claim.

WalesOnline reports that polls by both Number Cruncher Politics and Electoral Calculus, have the Lib Dems winning and the bookies have them as the out and out favourites. The Tories are most likely to be second with The Brexit Party in third.

The result is expected at about 3 am on Friday morning.

It'll be interesting to see how the votes pan out and, if the Lib Dems do win as expected, will their vote share exceed that of the Tories and Brexit Party combined?


Defeat in Brecon by-election would leave Government with majority of one

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