Boris Johnson by Bulgarian Embassy (CC-BY-2.0)

Boris Johnson by Bulgarian Embassy (CC-BY-2.0)

The 'Boris Bounce' continues as the Tories have another good showing in the polls.

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The latest Westminster Voting Intention poll from YouGov for the Sunday Times, shows that the Conservative Party is still benefiting from the 'Boris Bounce'.

In a lesson on what a clear direction and firm leadership can bring to a political party, Boris Johnson has reversed the fortunes of the Tories and is in first place in the latest YouGov poll having benefited from a six point boost in just the last few days, to take them to 31%.

WVI YouGov 28 Jul 2019

WVI YouGov 28 Jul 2019

And despite having gained a couple of percentage points and taken second place from the Lib Dems, the Labour Party is a full ten points behind with 21%.

Losing three points, the Lib Dems have slipped to third place and are now on 20%.

And The Brexit Party has shed four points and is now on 13%.

The Greens have also dropped back a point but the SNP has gone from 4% to 5% and Plaid Cymru is still on one percent.

YouGov said:

"The new Prime Minister seems to be succeeding in bringing his party's former voters back into the fold. Of those Tories who backed the party in 2017 and would vote in a new election, 68% now say they will vote Conservative, compared to only 56% earlier in the week. At the same time the proportion saying they would cast their ballot for the Brexit Party has fallen from 25% to 19%."

The poll was conducted over the 25th and 26th of July with 1,697 respondents from Great Britain, therefore Northern Ireland voters' intentions were excluded.

That means that you have to factor in DUP seats that may be gained in a General Election when looking at the Brexit versus Remain divide.

So looking at the YouGov results the Brexit Vote of the Tories plus The Brexit Party work out at 44% of the vote.

While the Lib Dems, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid all add up to 34%.

The Labour 21% could reduce as its Brexit stance becomes clearer, so it's up to you where and how you apportion its vote.

The Brexit Party does have a problem now. In that below a certain percentage threshold they are unlikely to gain any parliamentary seats at all – Remember UKIP in 2015 when it achieved 12.6% of the vote with 3.9 million votes and only got one seat!

Unless Nigel Farage can concentrate his vote in specific areas, such as in the North, and demonstrate that it actually exists, then some Brexit Party supporters may start worrying about a Labour win or a Labour/Lib Dem coalition and think of voting tactically for the Tories to make sure Jeremy Corbyn is kept out of Number Ten.

For the moment, Boris Johnson is rising to the Brexit challenge, pressing all the right buttons and saying all the right things. But a week is a long time in politics.

Sources:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/28/voting-intention-con-31-lab-21-lib-dem-20-brex-13-

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