Why is there this constant background noise from politicians and pundits that somehow the EU elections could be called off – we all know they're going to happen.


Looking through the media I still keep seeing suggestions that the EU elections, that are due to take place in just four weeks time, could be halted. But they won't be.

The argument seems to be that, if Theresa May can quickly get an agreement with Jeremy Corbyn, then both leaders can whip their MPs into compliance to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement and, what would then be, the amended joint Political Declaration as well as push through the Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill or WAIB, (to give it it's full and proper Title).

But they only have four weeks to do that and they will be fighting on three major fronts with those intent on stopping us entering into the Withdrawal Agreement treaty.

Front one will obviously be the Brexiteers in Parliament, who view the Withdrawal Agreement as an unacceptable surrender and will conduct a fierce programme of trench warfare against it.

Front two will be the ardent Remainers in Parliament who want the UK to remain as full members of the EU and nothing else is acceptable to them. They will also fight every inch of the way to get the Withdrawal Agreement rejected, however much the Political Declaration is watered down by Labour.

And they will also be fighting on a third front against the electorate, on both the Remain and Leave side, which has shown that it also rejects the Withdrawal Agreement treaty. In fact it is coming around by the day to the view that a swift cutting of the cord and leaving on WTO terms is now the best route.

But where the EU elections are concerned, those in power either want to force Theresa May's surrender treaty through in one form or another, or they preferably want the UK to remain as full members.

Getting May's surrender treaty through would take months and months. It will never be ready for ratification prior to the EU elections taking place – so the PM will be happy to see them take place to give her the time to get her treaty through by the 31st of October, which is when the current Article 50 extension runs out.

And most MPs and Lords are Remainers and they will be more than happy to see these elections go ahead, as it is an essential element for the UK to stay as full EU members.

To stop those elections would take legislative intervention because the PM, as the head of the executive, cannot halt elections by decree – that would be unconstitutional. So, as most politicians are pro-EU, where would that legislative intervention come from?

Truth is, it wouldn't!

And even getting rid of Theresa May and inserting a full-on Brexiteer in her place will not change that pro-Remain parliamentary arithmetic.

Then there's the Treaty rights of EU27 citizens living in the UK while we are members of the EU, that could suddenly have their Treaty rights to vote in EU elections stripped from them. I'm convinced that assurances must have been given by Theresa May to the Eurocrats that those rights were safe once the elections were called – and those elections have been called.

So we are going to hold these elections and once they are out of the way the Remain based establishment will have the ensuing five months to get to work on a full Brexit reversal.

And I don't think it will involve what would, for them, be a risky second EU referendum.

No, it will be a long winded wearing down of resistance using Article 50 extension after Article 50 extension while quietly signing away UK sovereign powers to the point where removing the UK from the EU is a legal impossibility.

And all this will be done by our government working at EU Council and EU Commission level long before any UK MEPs get a look at the paperwork.

Holding EU elections was always the litmus test for me.

No elections would mean we would have left the EU.

Holding them means the Establishment is telling us that we are staying in the EU.

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