MPs have got their lengthy extension that ensures EU parliamentary elections will take place, so they're now off on their Easter hols until the 23rd April.


In a video this morning I pointed out that, if Theresa May wants to get her deal through before the requirement for the UK to hold EU elections, then she would have to get a bare minimum of three things done before the 22nd of May.

She would first have to get an agreement with Labour on the Political Declaration, which is the negotiating start position for the future talks with the EU to get to a relationship with them.

Now, given the political make-up of the two parties, either an agreed outcome will anger Tory supporters, or it will anger Labour supporters or, more probably, anger both parties' support base.

So I doubt we'll see much success there.

Then she has to get the 585 page Withdrawal Agreement and its backstop through the Commons, something she has failed to do so far and incurring the largest ever defeat in history in the process.

And here the predominantly Remain House of Commons will take her challenge of it's either her deal or EU elections – and obviously decide on EU elections – because that ensures a solid base for Remaining in the EU.

Third she has to get a brand new act of parliament through into law, that Brexiteers in both Houses will absolutely hate and fight tooth and nail against.

Now this morning I pointed out that it would be a mammoth task to get this through in the six weeks between now and the 22nd of May to prevent the need for EU elections.

But our MPs have voted to go on their Easter break from tonight until the 23rd April!

I can confirm," said the Leader of the House, Andrea Leadsom, "that the house will rise at the close of business today and return on Tuesday 23rd April,” to the collective cheers of MPs.

That will therefore only give them four weeks to get all that stuff I just mentioned in the same sock!

And given their recent performance, how on earth is that achievable?

Actually, I don't think they have any intention at all, of even attempting the task other than to put on a bit of theatre for the rest of us.

So the likely outcome is that Labour and Tories will keep talking and getting nowhere, MPs will keep voting down Theresa May's deal and, if it ever gets in front of politicians, the Withdrawal Agreement Bill will face a slow, grinding and torrid journey through the legislative process.

This forces the UK to have EU elections and once MEPs are elected, there will be no incentive for any deal at all.

The Remainer establishment will then hang on and keep pressing for either a second EU referendum or for a full-blown, unilateral reversal of Brexit by revoking the Article 50 letter.

And I see this cycle continuing, just as the UKIP leader Gerard Batten predicted.

But the big psychological and political gulf they all had to breach between them, was getting the UK involved in the EU elections, and that they have now achieved.

The Renain establishment can now relax as they engineer the complete reversal of Brexit in the coming months – if we let them.

They will now work hard at limiting the political backlash, hoping that Brexiteers will just give up and not vote in the local council and EU parliamentary elections.

I say don't let them win – vote UKIP and send them a massive kick up the collective political backside.

Finally, all our politicians and businesses, we were told, were talking, panicking and worrying about no deal Brexit cliff edges and the like. And then were all mightily relieved when Theresa May was forced by the EU to extend the Article 50 period up until the 31st of October.

So how come Sterling did not react in value? How come the pound stayed rock steady against the euro and the dollar throughout? Surely, if all those no-deal WTO Brexit claims were true, then the pound would have risen quite markedly as soon as the news came out.

But it didn't and I'll let you work out why.

And finally finally, someone sent me an advert being sent to MPs. It says "Free bungee jump for MPs. Venue, Tower Bridge. Yes, it's completely free – no strings attached!"

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