The traditional Conservative versus Labour, two party state political system in the UK is unravelling right before our very eyes.

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In normal times, when Labour does badly, the Tories mop up the votes and when the Tories falter, the Labour party is the beneficiary.

But today they are both falling in the polls and in the case of the Tories it is more of a power dive than just a free-fall.

Right now, the latest EU election voting intentions poll from YouGov puts The Brexit Party rising to 35%, The Lib Dems trailing in second place with just 16%, Labour dropping to third place with 15%, the Greens in fourth on ten percent, the Tories in fifth on 9%, Change UK on 5% and UKIP on 3%.

According to the poll, 62% of Tories who voted Conservative at the last general election in 2017, will vote for the Nigel Farage Brexit Party. While on the Labour side 35% will vote for The Brexit Party.

And when looking at those 2017 Conservative voters who voted to leave the EU in 2016, 78% will be voting for The Brexit Party and on the Labour side 47% of 2017 Labour voters who voted to leave in 2016, will also be voting for The Brexit Party.

Under the D'Hondt system of allocating seats, if replicated across the nation, this would give The Brexit Party the first two seats in every region bar Northern Ireland where they are not actually standing a candidate.

And now that Theresa May's fate has all but been sealed, the talks between the Tories and Labour have ground to a halt without an agreement being reached – no surprise there then.

So all eyes will be on those that come forward over the next days and weeks to take her place in Number Ten.

And until that vacancy has been filled, Brexit will be on hold, on both sides of the House of Commons, which will leave a clear field for Nigel Farage to wreak havoc with his Brexit Party next week.

Although we'll get a good idea of the thinking amongst the front runners in the run up to any Tory party leadership election, it will only be when they get into post that any changes in Brexit policy will start to become apparent.

And much of that will hinge on the reception their appointment gets from Brussels and the EU27 leaders.

Will whoever takes over, end up just trying to rehash the Withdrawal Agreement?

Or will they try and restart the whole exit procedure requiring a huge Article 50 extension in the process?

Or will they do the sensible thing and pull the plug on the EU immediately and take the country out on WTO terms?

I would guess, that those wanting a PM with firm Brexit views as well as one prepared to take the decisive leave decision that this country needs so much, will find themselves disappointed.

And Labour's fence sitting in an attempt to not only give the Tories enough rope to hang Theresa May by, but to also try and play to both sides of the Brexit divide, has definitely not paid off. As indicated by the party's polling figures.

In fact, if Labour does not make hay while the Tory sun don't shine, could Corbyn be for the chop too?

The end result of all of this is that a party that wants to do what the electorate voted for is winning massive support, and those that do not are losing support hand over fist.

Now, there's a message there, if I could just put my finger on it.

All that our parliament has achieved since the Referendum in 2016, is to show the world how not to operate a democracy and how to bring the entire government and parliamentary system to a complete halt – And it's the people in it that are at fault!

Sources:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/17/labour-and-tories-lose-majority-support-brexit-pro

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48303811

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/16/labour-brexit-party-european-elections-nigel-farage

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