Mike Paterson’s Daily Forex Brief
Range trading rules the day again and with traders not prepared to run positions for any length of time we’ve seen a reversal in the recent falls in the wake of rumoured/expected better news.
Talk abounds that the Troika will give Greece their extra two years to sort themselves out and of course we had the now well-publicised crowing of UK Prime Minister Cameron in the Commons yesterday “allegedly” based on him seeing the latest GDP figures officially out this morning.
The PM is one of a handful of people who get to see the numbers in advance of the release by the ONS and it would appear he just couldn’t resist taunting the Opposition benches with the promise the good news “ will just keep on coming “.. Either way the ONS have rightly launched an enquiry into whether he has acted in breach of regulations.
Better Q3 GDP will hardly be surprising given the impact of the Olympics but traders were quick to cover short positions and we saw a spike higher in GBPUSD dragging the Pound up across the board.
GBPUSD has been up to 1.6068 and EURGBP down to 0.8077 ( GBPEUR upto 1.2380 ) but the Pound since settled back ahead of the data release shortly.
EURUSD failed to hold below 1.2950 and while the Greek news had limited impact initially traders finally gave up on the short-side and the pair rallied to reach highs this morning so far of 1.3015.
The US $ generally has come in for a bit of a correction with AUDUSD climbing higher again dragging GBPAUD back down to 1.5461 but USDJPY has bucked the trend as the Yen continues to lose favour exacerbating the moves elsewhere as EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY all see a decent rally.
STOP PRESS:Â UK GDP for Q3 rises 1% , better than the market expectations of +0.6%. GBPUSD up to 1.6135, EURGBP down to 0.8065 (1.2400). Biggest turnaround since 2007. Provisional figure of course and there will undoubtedly be an Olympic factor. We await to see just how much. But yesterday’s buyers of GBP will be sending the PM a big kiss right now……….
Just time for a quick sports round-up to mention that Man City screw up in Europe yet again, Arsenal‘s defence show more leaks than those at PMQ’s yesterday, and Cook officially welcomes KP back to the fold, but at what price?
Interbank Rates at 08:47 BST
Today’s Data: BST
09.30-UK – Q3 GDP (Provisional)
13.30-US- Durable Goods / Weekly Jobless Claims
15.00-US- Pending Home Sales
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Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.
To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email firstname.lastname@example.org
The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.