Mike Paterson’s Daily Forex Brief

Main news out came in Asia with the surprisingly good trade data from China who announced a whopping +$31.60 billion versus $20 billion expected, with exports up 14% versus 5% forecast. Imports also rose to 6% v 3.5%.

It’s often suggested that Chinese economic data (particularly) is not a precise science and perhaps somewhat manipulated, but these figures have certainly given the region, nay the world, some renewed hope that this data augers well moving forward. We’ll wait to see whether it’s a blip or not.

The Aussie dollar immediately jumped higher with AUDUSD reaching 1.0568 so far, forcing GBPAUD down to 1.5153. AUDJPY is also higher with USDJPY having another leap higher. We’ve also seen some AUD buying versus EUR which has helped to cap any Euro rally.

Both EURUSD and GBPUSD have traded quietly in the middle of their recent ranges ahead of today’s interest rate decisions from the BOE and ECB.

EURUSD dipped below support lines at 1.3050 but with little follow through and a few buyers came back in to rally up to 1.3075, while GBPUSD has bounced off 1.6000 support but with limited enthusiasm. EURGBP has failed to breach resistance around 0.8160 but looks well supported still.

We’re not expecting any change in interest rates today but as ever traders will pay keen attention to the ECB press conference at 13.30 GMT where we can normally expect a bomb or two to be dropped, hence the caution being given out there right now.

And with Chelsea losing again I’d suggest Mr Benitez should express some caution about sticking around much longer at Stamford Bridge. Mind you, taking the Russian king’s shilling comes complete with handsome pay-off benefits so I doubt whether he’s really that bothered………..

MSPFX forex website

Interbank Rates at 08:35 BST

Currency Pair


EURUSD 1.3062
GBPUSD 1.6010
EURGBP 0.8157
GBPEUR 1.2255
GBPCHF 1.4815
GBPAUD 1.5157
EURCHF 1.2088
GBPHKD 12.4126
EURHKD 10.1285
GBPZAR 13.7571
USDJPY 88.15
GBPCZK 31.4710

Today’s Data: BST

12.00-UK – BOE Interest Rate/QE Decision

12.45-EU – ECB Interest Rate Decision

13.30-EU – ECB Press Conference

13.30-US – Weekly Jobless Claims

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.

To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com

The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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