Bloomberg's fourth quarter ranking of 2016 placed Cinkciarz in first place for its forecasts for the USD/PLN currency pair. The financial analysts of the currency exchange market leader also placed third for the summary ranking of the Latin American currencies.
In the fourth quarter of 2016, the dollar became more expensive by around 0.40 PLN against the zloty. – This was caused by the general increase of the American currency’s value on the global market. The dollar started to record gains after the US election. Donald Trump's victory, and the Republicans remaining in the majority in both Congressional houses, made the economic plans of the President-elect plausible – explained Marcin Lipka, Cinkciarz senior analyst.
Expanding on what is mentioned above, investors started to gradually price the possibility of tax reduction for companies and households, the reduction of the regulations for the companies and the public investments in infrastructure. Setting these initiatives into motion on one hand increases chances for the faster economic growth in the future, but on the other creates risk of the economy overheating.
– Regardless of the final scenario for the USA, in the perspective of the coming quarters, both the GDP and inflation should speed up. This could motivate the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rates sooner than expected. Higher interest rates in the USA, in relation to other developed economies, stimulate the capital flow back to the United States which causes the dollar to gain value – added the analyst.
According to the experts at Cinkciarz.pl, another positive stimulus for the dollar could emerge in the first half of the year, when the introduction of the reforms prepared by the new American administration begin. It cannot be excluded that the dollar will cost 4.50 PLN before summer holidays. Additionally, if there is a cumulation of positive data from the USA and the expectations towards raising the interest rates increase, then it is probable that the dollar will go above the level of 4.70 PLN. This would mean that the American currency will be at its historical high against the Polish zloty.
Accurate forecasts for the dollar and the zloty are not the only winning pairs on the podium for Cinkciarz. First place was also awarded to the company’s currency experts for the predictions of the euro and the Ukrainian hryvnia pairing. Moreover, the company placed second in the ranking of the forecasts for the following currency pairs: the US dollar and Chilean peso, and the US dollar and Peruvian sol.
The online currency exchange company was also awarded third place for the forecasts of the US dollar and Korean won pairing, as well as the summary ranking of Latin American currencies.