• UKIP down to lowest level of support since March

• Miliband’s approval rating remains cripplingly low

• 20% believe Commonwealth Games could increase likelihood of Scottish ‘yes’ vote

• 63% in England and Wales want Scots to say ‘no thanks

This week’s Opinium/Observer Political Poll reveals that Labour continue to hold a three point lead with 35% to 32% for the Conservatives. UKIP’s support is waning, down 2 points to 15%. This is the lowest level of support for UKIP since the end of March and before the European elections.

The Liberal Democrats remain trapped in single figures with 7% of the vote and only two points ahead of the Green party on 5%:

• Labour support increases by one point, leading the way with 35%

• Conservative support increases by 2 points to 32%

• UKIP is down 2 points at 15%

• The Liberal Democrats are down 2 points at 7%

Commonwealth games 2014 by Groundhopper2000

By Groundhopper2000

Labour leader Ed Miliband’s approval rating remains very poor with a net rating of -24% (24% approve, 48% disapprove) ahead of only Nick Clegg on -44% (16% vs. 60%). David Cameron is the most popular of the three main parties in the Commons with -8% overall (38% approve, 46% disapprove) but even he remains behind UKIP’s Nigel Farage with -6% (32% vs. 38%)

Keeping the kingdom united

The majority of voters in England and Wales want Scotland to say ‘no thanks’.  Just under two thirds (63%) want Scotland to stay in the UK versus just 19% who want to see it become an independent country.

What do Brits expect to happen in Scotland?

Over half (54%) of voters across the whole of Great Britain think Scotland will vote to stay in the UK versus 27% who expect a ‘yes’ vote. However, a fifth of voters (20%) think the Commonwealth Games will give Alex Salmond and his colleagues a boost and make a ‘yes’ vote more likely.

Adam Drummond, Opinium Research comments:

“It’s not surprising that UKIP have fallen back slightly compared to the limelight they enjoyed surrounding the European elections but Nigel Farage retains a net-approval rating higher than any other major politician due to an increase in the number of people disapproving of David Cameron. It’s a cliché to say that the Scottish independence debate is being ignored in England but given that 40% of voters in England and Wales say they ‘definitely’ want Scotland to stay, perhaps people are more engaged than is commonly thought.”

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