Mike Paterson’s daily Forex brief

The Euro has come under pressure again after ex Greek PM Papademos said that preparations are being made for a Greek exit from the Eurozone and the risk is real, while Merkel seemingly refuses to concede ground on growth/Eurobond/money printing ahead of today’s EU summit.

EURUSD fell in a rush and has been down to 1.2645, taking with it EURGBP which has been back down to 0.8031 (GBPEUR up to 1.2453), and EURJPY has fallen to 100.22 from 101.49.

The US Dollar continues to remain supreme with GBPUSD falling to 1.5732 having failed to break up through the 1.5850 level I‘ve been mentioning, while AUDUSD has been down to 2012 lows of 0.9729, forcing GBPAUD back up through 1.6100.

Dollar aside the Pound has enjoyed some decent gains overall ahead of the BOE’s MPC Minutes and Retail Sales this morning which may well have negative impact though upon release.

More data out from the Eurozone and then the US to keep things ticking over while the EU leaders decide what they can/cannot, might/might not do.

The return to risk-off sentiment (were we ever really risk-on?) has seen stock markets slide again after a brief rally and the USD strength has also kicked back into the Gold price which has fallen back to support lines around $1550 after failing to break up through strong resistance around $1595 that I mentioned.

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

So Stamford Bridge and Didier Drogba finally say their good-byes after 8 incident packed years and Uncle Roy has his first England get- together today ahead of Euro 2012  (don’t forget to keep checking http://englandtilidie.wordpress.com/ as the build up continues).

And a loyal reader from Bedfordshire has picked me up on my factual inaccuracies in claiming Alastair Cook as one of my own as an Essex boy when he simply plays for the county. I am happy to declare of course that he does in fact hail from the aforementioned minor county but of course had to seek his fame and fortune by plying his trade for a proper side!

Stop Press: MPC votes 9-0 to keep interest rates on hold and 8-1 to maintain QE at £325 billion but Retail Sales have come in weaker than expected at -2.3% m-o-m and –1.1% y-o-y. The Pound has come in for a little bit of a sell as I sign–off.

Interbank Rates 08:47 BST

Currency Pair



High Low
EUR/USD 1.2661 1.2689 1.2645
GBP/USD 1.5736 1.5772 1.5732
EUR/GBP 0.8048 0.8055 0.8031
GBP/EUR 1.2427 1.2453 1.2413
GBP/CHF 1.4926 1.4957 1.4906
GBP/AUD 1.6122 1.6168 1.6058
EUR/CHF 1.2009 1.2015 1.2008
GBP/HKD 12.2001 12.2280 12.1970
EUR/HKD 9.8174 9.8509 9.7944
GBP/ZAR 13.1934 13.2262 13.0913
USD/JPY 79.51 80.08 79.45
GBP/CZK 31.5709 31.6106 31.3791

Today’s Data: BST

09.30-UK- BOE’s MPC Minutes / Retail Sales

10.00-EU- Eurozone Industrial New Orders

11.00-UK- CB Industrial Trends Orders

15.00-US- New Home Sales / House Price Index

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.
To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com
The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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