Mike Paterson’s Daily Forex Brief

It seems like the markets have been factoring in a positive outcome from today’s expected decision from the Eurogroup on the Greek bailout deal and the Euro has found a few buyers.

But it’s by no means a certainty and, with the announcement due at 11.30 GMT, we’ve seen a little profit-taking in Asia and early Europe ahead of the event.

EURUSD has been up to 1.2991 but found the large barrier option and key resistance at 1.3000 one step too far and has fallen back to 1.2943 before picking up a few buyers again. EURGBP has cleared out the sell orders between 0.8085-8100 with a high so far of 0.8102 but has yet to take on the next big resistance level at 0.8110-20.

This move up in the pair has seen GBPUSD’s rise tempered but we’ve still seen highs of 1.6041 in what has effectively been a risk-on period. We’ve fallen back this morning to 1.6002 and trying to stay above 1.6000 now as I type.

EURJPY has fallen though as the profit-taking continues after a period of sustained Yen weakness last week and this is having its impact on the Euro elsewhere too but EURUSD should find good support in the dips to 1.2900 and EURGBP has decent bids around the 0.8065 pivot level.

Little in the way of data today so it’s all eyes on the Greek decision and a quick flurry as traders try and feed from the sparse scraps left in the trough.

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

But it’s a feast all the way for the mighty Shrimpers at the moment with a 3-1 home win lifting them to the heady heights of 4th place, and for Sebastian Vettel who picked up his third consecutive F1 title in Rio.

And then there’s the small matter (who we kidding? Ed) of our cricketers absolutely nailing the 2nd Test in India with a 10 wicket win concluded in four days to level the series. Monty and Swanny reigned supreme on a turning pitch, Cook proved once again what a class act he is and KP finally stepped up to the plate with an imperious 186. Happy days indeed and a win that ranks right up there with the very best in recent years. Bring it on!

Have a good week all.

Interbank Rates at 08:50 BST

Currency Pair


EURUSD 1.2968
GBPUSD 1.6010
EURGBP 0.8100
GBPEUR 1.2342
GBPCHF 1.4870
GBPAUD 1.5324
EURCHF 1.2043
GBPHKD 12.4126
EURHKD 10.570
GBPZAR 14.1827
USDJPY 82.05
GBPCZK 31.2305

Today’s Data: BST

12.00-EU – GFK German Consumer Climate

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.

To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com

The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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