Mike Paterson’s Daily Forex Brief

We’ve seen a rally in EURUSD and EURGBP as traders appear to rule out any chance of an interest rate cut this Thursday by the ECB.

Not entirely surprising but enough in these fickle early-year markets to move things around a bit.

EURUSD has risen to hit highs thus far of 1.3140 before settling back a little while EURGBP has capped at resistance levels around 0.8160 ( GBPEUR support 1.2254 ). The main Euro aberration though is versus the Yen where its fallen from 115.26 to 114.47 as traders trim back their short Yen positions, fearing that perhaps we’ve seen a three month move in three weeks.

Yep, I know I usually highlight that EURJPY selling normally helps drive the Euro lower but this latest move just proves that there’s little correlation out there at the moment.

GBPUSD had a decent rally to 1.6130 but ran into heavy selling and we’re back down to 1.6095 as I type.. Overall the Pound remains a really mixed bag. (stop me if you’ve heard that before recently!).

We’ve got some key Eurozone data out this morning which should shake things up a bit but the focus undoubtedly will be aimed at Thursday’s BOE and ECB decisions barring any news wire bombs..

Still anyone’s guess where we’re heading as January progresses but my guess is that it’s nowhere fast for the moment.

And it’s a welcome return to the spotlight for music legend ( a justifiable use of the oft abused term ) David Bowie on his 66th birthday today. His release of a new single, Where Are We Now?, produced by long time collaborator Tony Visconti marks Bowie’s first real product since a 2006 tour and his first new recoding for 10 years amidst various health/ state of mind rumours.

MSPFX forex website

Interbank Rates at 08:47 BST

Currency Pair

Rates

EURUSD 1.3120
GBPUSD 1.6085
EURGBP 0.8157
GBPEUR 1.2257
GBPCHF 1.4823
GBPAUD 1.5323
EURCHF 1.2091
GBPHKD 12.4707
EURHKD 10.1743
GBPZAR 13.7979
USDJPY 87.40
GBPCZK 31.3194

Today’s Data: BST

10.00-EU – Eurozone Retail Sales/Eurozone Unemployment

11.00-EU – German Factory Orders

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.

To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com

The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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