Mike Paterson’s Daily Forex Brief

I normally refer to the last day of the week as Frantic Friday and the last one didn’t let us down with some highly volatile trading and the Euro continuing to fall.

The Yen had been a prime mover in early European trading after talk overnight from the Japanese FM that the Yen fall had been too rapid but there’s still been to sell on the rallies and USDJPY has bounced back to 93.00 bringing the crosses up with it.

But the main story as the day unfolded was further selling of the Euro after better than expected US Trade Balance data. EURUSD fell sharply and so far we’ve tested strong support at 1.3350 but held as the usual suspects come in to pick up a few cheap ones.

EURGBP was the week’s biggest mover falling back over 260 pips to lows of 0.8447 but has since rallied off decent support lines down there and trades at 0.8494 as I type.

A combination of traders getting oversold on GBP and Carney not talking too much about further easing has given the Pound some decent consolidation. GBPAUD and GBPCHF are both higher but GBPUSD has now failed once again to hold above 1.5800 and the sellers have re-emerged and lo and behold is sinking again. Blink and you miss it in these markets.

As the new week unfolds we can expect yet more fun and games. Is this a Euro correction or a reversal? Have we already seen the best levels for a while? Is the Pound set for another slap? Is it time to be USD bullish after all? The jury is still out right now but there’s no doubt that last week’s shake-out will have given trader’s something to think about as they lick a few unexpected wounds.

mspfx.co.ukEngland’s rugby players found themselves in an enthralling match of mistakes but breath-taking all the same. The 12-6 victory in Dublin keeps them on course for a Grand Slam and there’s a real buzz around this young England camp that challenges anyone to back against them.

City lost, United won and the Premier League is surely heading back to the Red side of Manchester. And down at the other end the mighty Shrimpers managed to nick a point away from home with a late equaliser. Hurrah!

Have a good week out there.

Interbank Rates at 08:16 BST

Currency Pair


EURUSD 1.3360
GBPUSD 1.5758
EURGBP 0.8480
GBPEUR 1.1793
GBPCHF 1.4473
GBPAUD 1.5316
EURCHF 1.2271
GBPHKD 12.2171
EURHKD 10.3597
GBPZAR 13.9842
USDJPY 92.70
GBPCZK 29.7688

Today’s Data: BST

Nothing of Note

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Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.

To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com

The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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