Mike Paterson’s Daily Forex Brief
After a quiet night in Asia, European traders have sold a few US $ this morning despite month–end flows expected to be going the other way as the day progresses.
The move has caught many on the hop and they’ve been forced to cover positions with EURUSD rising to 1.3015 and GBPUSD to 1.6137, both just short of good technical resistance.
AUDUSD has tested 1.0400 but found strong resistance there so far, possibly the RBA with an interest to keep a lid on things but also talk of a barrier option being defended.
EURGBP has seen the usual Bundesbank month-end buying to cover the UK’s EU contribution and has been lifted from 0.8045 to 0.8070 before finding some sellers. There is a strong technical resistance at 0.8084.
Overall the Pound is little changed as focus remains elsewhere.
Today there is a conference call between the EU Finance Ministers to discuss the Troika findings on Greece amidst a backdrop of escalating political unrest in the Greek coalition and we have Eurozone CPI and Unemployment data released shortly.
One would think all this should keep the Euro’s advance capped for the moment but we’ll see as the day pans out. Month-end will still have a lot to say on flows.
US markets are expected to re-open today and traders will undoubtedly have one eye over there to see how things develop.
Back on UK shores last night produced a remarkable football cup-tie with Arsenal coming back from 0-4 versus Reading to win 7-5, while Chris Robshaw is again named Captain for England’s Rugby Union autumn programme which sees the visits of Fiji, Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand.
Quite a mouth watering feast to anticipate as the rain drives hard against the window on a mouldy Autumn morning.
Interbank Rates at 08:48 BST
Today’s Data: BST
10.00-EU – Eurozone CPI / Eurozone Unemployment Rate
12.30-US – Employment Cost Index
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Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.
To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email email@example.com
The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.