Mike Paterson’s daily Forex brief

The rollercoaster, risk-off, risk-on ride continues and we’ve had the expected volatility over the past 24 hours and a lively start to this morning, hence my late posting of the update.

Plenty of volatility and two-way business yesterday amidst a plethora of data and rhetoric but EURUSD eventually found decent support between 1.3660 and 1.3700 and we’re now back up to 1.3830 with the usual Asian suspects buying good amounts in the dips.

This has now been exacerbated by a sharp move up again in EURCHF 1.2468 (140 pips from yesterday’s lows) as fresh speculation on SNB fixing the rate at 1.3500 or even 1.4000 once again hits the streets. This time the trade unions have stated they’re in favour (obviously) of a 1.40 peg and there is a growing feeling that something could happen as early as this Friday’s SNB meeting.

This move back up in the Euro means EURGBP is once again testing key resistance around 0.8785-0.8800 (GBPEUR support 1.1365-80) having yesterday been 100 pips lower and testing key support around 0.8680 (GBPEUR resistance 1.1520). Expect stop-loss selling of GBP if 0.8810 (1.1350) should break.

GBPUSD is lagging behind again in this latest risk-on episode and the Pound has lost ground across the board, except a small rise against the weakening Swiss Franc, as is now becoming the familiar pattern.

BOE MPC Minutes out just now showed a 9-0 vote in favour of £75 billion at the last interest rate meeting, with discussions over a £50-100 billion increase. The Pound immediately had a bit of a sell-off but is faring a bit better as I type.

Gold and stocks are still in consolidation mode but off their base after Monday’s sell-off.

More data out the US this afternoon to keep it all ticking over nicely, but we’re really none the wiser of where the next move’s coming from or indeed where it’s going.

She loves me, she loves me not, indeed……

Today's Data:


Live Economic Calendar Powered by Forexpros – The Leading Financial Portal

Weekly Economic CalendarHERE

Interbank Rates as of 09.22 BST

Current Price

Overnight

High

Low

EUR/USD

1.3818

1.3840

1.3724

GBP/USD

1.5743

1.5779

1.5695

EUR/GBP

0.8774

0.8789

0.8739

GBP/EUR

1.1392

1.1444

1.1376

GBP/CHF

1.4178

1.4220

1.4097

GBP/AUD

1.5278

1.5354

1.5248

EUR/CHF

1.2445

1.2468

1.2349

GBP/HKD

12.2055

12.2335

12.1683

GBP/ZAR

12.5653

12.6487

12.4790

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.
To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com
The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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