Mike Paterson’s daily Forex brief

Plenty of action but little real movement since I reported yesterday. The rally did indeed peter out and NY trading saw sharp falls lower again but it seems that there’s some decent buying interest across the board in the dips.

EURUSD couldn’t breach 1.3400 and came all the way back down to 1.3285 but since been back to 1.3374, GBPUSD peaked on target around 1.5590 and fell back to 1.5468 but is now back up to 1.5560, while AUDUSD topped at 0.9976, fell to 0.9867 but has since rallied back up to 0.9995 before running out the steam. So you get the picture huh?!!

EURCHF fell back on large selling of USDCHF while USDJPY continues to grind itself higher without BOJ action although we’ve failed to hold above 78.00 for the present.

EURGBP failed to break above the 0.8610 (GBPEUR 1.1614) pivot level I mentioned and has headed lower on a weaker Euro tone and possibly the decent GBPUSD buying interest around that I also mentioned. Month end buying of the pair should mean we hold 0.8530-50 unless the Eurozone problems kick off again.

Loads of rhetoric on Europe but the main driver back lower was further talk of a French downgrade, even after all the denials of all the rumours that drove markets higher yesterday to begin with! Oh, and that’s been denied too of course. So we can expect more of the same today I’m sure.

Daily Forex Brief2

Daily Forex Brief

Main focus today will be UK Chancellor Osborne’s Autumn Statement at 12.30 GMT when he is expected to give a gloomy analysis of present conditions but also announce some further stimulus for growth. No doubt it will all seem a little like giving away with one hand but taking more back with the other, but he will have the comfort of being able to blame Europe and will therefore surely take the opportunity to persuade people that it really is going to be a long hard road ahead but it’s not his fault. Time will tell whether the Coalition’s policy is correct or whether the level of cuts will prove terminal. Either way expect GBP to be in the spotlight as traders and analysts attempt to calculate the impact of today’s speech.

Here we go again.

Today's Data:

09.30-UK- M4 Money Supply / Mortgage Approvals / Net Lending to Individuals

15.00-US- House Price Index / CB Consumer Confidence

Weekly Economic CalendarHERE

Interbank Rates as of 08:17 BST

Current Price

Overnight

High

Low

EUR/USD

1.3349

1.3374

1.3285

GBP/USD

1.5557

1.5560

1.5468

EUR/GBP

0.8574

0.8611

0.8567

GBP/EUR

1.1661

1.1674

1.1611

GBP/CHF

1.4352

1.4357

1.4267

GBP/AUD

1.5601

1.5694

1.5694

EUR/CHF

1.2302

1.2316

1.2279

GBP/HKD

12.0613

12.0637

11.9923

EUR/HKD

10.3433

10.3898

10.2754

GBP/ZAR

13.0125

13.0430

12.8340

USD/JPY

77.91

78.29

77.76

GBP/CZK

2.9846

3.0006

2.9210

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.
To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com
The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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