Boris Johnson by UK in Japan-FCO (CC-BY-2.0)

Image by UK in Japan-FCO (CC-BY-2.0)

A recent poll shows that support for the Nigel Farage Brexit Party will collapse, if the new Tory Prime Minister delivers Brexit by the 31st of October.

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It turns out that Hallowe'en could be a night of horrors for Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party, if the new Conservative Party leader and PM, whether it be Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt, is able to deliver Brexit on time.

An ORB International poll for the Telegraph, shows that the current Conservative Party member support for The Brexit Party would fizzle out overnight if Brexit were delivered.

If the UK does not exit the bloc on time and there were a general election, the poll shows that 56% of members would vote for the Tories, 35% for The Brexit Party, 5% for the Lib Dems, 1% for UKIP and 3% for other parties.

ORB Poll result for Brexit Party support

But if the UK does leave on time, then 92% will vote for the Tories, just 5% will vote for The Brexit Party and 3% for the LibDems.

And although this is just a sample from the Tory membership, one can quite easily imagine this being reflected amongst the wider Tory voting public, who might feel 'job done' and return back to their familiar stomping ground.

And that could also well apply to voters from other parties too – like Labour.

It's a hugely significant polling result and one that will have Nigel Farage scratching his head wondering how he can deliver the promise to change UK politics for good with a support base from his main supplier reduced to that size.

Of course Farage has seen this all before, when as the leader of UKIP, once the referendum result to leave the EU was achieved, UKIP saw its membership numbers decline as many jumped ship or let their membership lapse thinking that it was all over and we can trust the Tories to deliver.

Now, if Boris becomes Prime Minister and does deliver Brexit, then Nigel Farage and his team of MEPs will be shutting their EU Parliament offices on the 31st of October and returning to the UK.

This will mean that Nigel Farage would have lost his main call on the media and how many of those MEPs and those on the MP candidate list he is trying to put together, would stay with him as they potentially see The Brexit Party poll ratings slide.

He would also probably have to look at re-naming and re-branding the party as well as identifying a new political niche and unique selling points.

Without the big Brexit hook, one wonders if a political party campaigning on the wholesale political reform of the UK would have the same magnetic attraction.

Unless of course he and his team are committed to their cause even if Brexit is delivered and, starting now, can come up with a whole raft of policies across the board that will set them apart from the rest and be attractive to a large number of voters.

Nigel Farage had to help form one political party to get the Brexit vote, he has formed another to force Brexit through to completion and, if that is successful, will he end up having to do it all again to try and change politics for good? Which is, after all, his stated aim. And, more importantly, would he want to?

Sources:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/10/tory-party-members-would-ditch-nigel-farage-boris-johnson-can/

ORB Poll: Voting Intention, Conservative Party Membership

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