State Street Global Markets, the investment research and trading arm of State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT), today released the results of the State Street Investor Confidence IndexÂ® (ICI) for July 2013.
The Global ICI rose very slightly to 107.6 in July, up 0.8 points from June’s revised reading of 106.8. The increase was slight, and was largely driven by an increase in risk appetite among Asian investors, with their risk appetite jumping from 89.3 to 100.8, and, to a lesser extent by an increase in risk appetite among European investors, with a corresponding increase from 98.2 to 105.7. North American investors by contrast became somewhat more conservative, showing a decline (albeit very small) from 114 to 113.7.
The State Street Investor Confidence Index was developed by Harvard University professor Kenneth Froot and Paul O’Connell of State Street Associates. It measures investor confidence or risk appetite quantitatively by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index assigns a precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite: the greater the percentage allocation to equities, the higher risk appetite or confidence. A reading of 100 is neutral; it is the level at which investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their long-term allocations to risky assets. The index differs from survey-based measures in that it is based on the actual trades, as opposed to opinions, of institutional investors.
“This month, North American investors are more concerned with rapid run ups in stocks and interest rates,” commented Froot. "Last month’s risk-on view was that the interest rate increase doesn’t portend higher inflation nor higher growth – that it’s just a reduction in the rate-distortion caused by the Fed’s QEIII. Investors are back to a more realistic concern that, distortion or not, higher nominal and real rates translate into less credit extension, less leverage, and slower growth. This has been underscored by the results of the earnings season, which have been mixed. It’s also a reminder that the previously high rates of forecasted earnings growth are, at this point, in the unlikely positive tail.”
“The more decisive part of this month’s story is what is happening with European and Asian investors,” said O’Connell. “There we see that there is light at the end of the tunnel of adjustment to slower Chinese, Japanese, and European growth. They seem to be saying that, in spite of higher interest rates globally, the developed-countries’ monetary authorities are most likely to act to reduce the risk of economic growth, responding with flexibility and stimulus on the downside and using the opportunity for faster growth to tighten and slim their balance sheets. As a result, the range of real economic growth outcomes is actually more limited than it has been in a long time.”
About State Street Global Markets
State Street Global Markets provides specialized investment research and trading in foreign exchange, equities, fixed income and derivatives. Its goal is to enhance and preserve portfolio values for asset managers and asset owners. From its unique position at the crossroads of global markets, it creates and unlocks value for its client with original investment behavior research, innovative portfolio strategies, trade process optimization, and global connectivity across multiple asset classes and markets.
State Street Global Markets’ research team of leading academic and industry experts is committed to continually advancing the science, including theory and application of its proprietary investor behavior research and innovative portfolio and risk management technologies.
About the State Street Investor Confidence IndexÂ®
The index is released globally at 10 a.m. Eastern time in Boston on the last Tuesday of each month. More information on the State Street Investor Confidence Index is available at http://www.statestreet.com/investorconfidenceindex/index.html.
About State Street Corporation
State Street Corporation (NYSE: STT) is one of the world's leading providers of financial services to institutional investors including investment servicing, investment management and investment research and trading. With $25.7 trillion in assets under custody and administration and $2.1 trillion in assets under management* at June 30, 2013, State Street operates in more than 100 geographic markets worldwide, including the U.S., Canada, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. For more information, visit State Street’s web site at www.statestreet.com.
* This AUM includes the assets of the SPDR Gold Trust (approx. $37 billion as of June 30, 2013), for which State Street Global Markets, LLC, an affiliate of State Street Global Advisors, serves as the marketing agent.
The views expressed in this material are the views of State Street through the period ended July 30, 2013 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.
This news announcement contains forward-looking statements as defined by United States securities laws, including statements about the financial outlook and business environment. Those statements are based on current expectations and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in State Street's 2012 annual report and subsequent SEC filings. State Street encourages investors to read the corporation's annual report, particularly the section on factors that may affect financial results, and its subsequent SEC filings for additional information with respect to any forward-looking statements and prior to making any investment decision. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release speak only as of the date hereof, July 30, 2013, and the company will not undertake efforts to revise those forward-looking statements to reflect events after this date.