Recently, a friend called me up and asked for some investment advice. He wondered if he should run for the exits, given the recent run-up in the stock market in what is now a somewhat euphoric investment climate.
My response? Yes and no.
I told my friend to take some profits off the table, but at the same time, he should also ride the stock market higher to what will likely be higher upside moves.
This is something that I have constantly advised during this recent stock market rally.
Hey, why take all of the your profits off the table now when there will surely (at least I’m thinking) be more gains to end the year? That is, of course, if the shopping season doesn’t tank and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn’t decide to surprise us with tapering. I doubt Ben will be smart enough to taper, but then again, with his stint as the head of the central bank drawing to a close, he may yet give us a surprise.
At this time, it’s all about maximizing your opportunities in the stock market while the easy money is flowing in. In other words, follow Dow theory and ride the ticker tape higher.
Even long-time perennial bear David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff appears to be conforming to the mass populous. In an interview with CNBC, Rosenberg seemed the most bullish I have ever seen him towards the stock market over the past decade, when he was constantly telling us stocks were set to fall.
In the interview, Rosenberg went as far as to suggest a stock weighting of just over 50%. (Source: Navarro, B.J., “Why a top market bear is turning bullish,” CNBC, October 22, 2013.) His top areas for growth include industrials, technology, and large-cap exporters.
“There are some opportunities in the stock market,” Rosenberg commented. (Source: Ibid.)
So here we are, chasing the S&P 500 higher breaking record after record.
However, we will likely see a retrenchment should the rapid rise continue unabated, as an overextension of the market is problematic.
So I’d offer investors the same advice I offered to my friend: for now, ride the gains, but be sure to take some profits off the table, especially following surges in a stock that appear to be overdone. The case of Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ/NFLX) last Tuesday is a prime example.
This article Is Sitting on the Fence the Best Investment Strategy Right Now? by George Leong, B.Comm was originally published at Investment Contrarians