Mike Paterson’s Daily Forex Brief

Apart from a brief rally when Draghi’s private discussions on Monday- suggesting he still planned to cap debt yields- which were leaked and then re-published again yesterday we’ve seen a solid move lower in EURUSD and GBPUSD to 1.2516 and 1.5850, and still heading down as I type.

Traders are simply preparing to be disappointed which is wise enough given the Eurozone and ECB’s recent record.

EURUSD had decent support at 1.2550 as I had mentioned but we’re now moving into territory that might even test the next big levels around 1.2500 and 1.2480.

EURGBP has been dragged down through its support lines around 0.7900 and much will depend now on whether GBPUSD also keeps pace with any further EURUSD move lower or indeed correction back up.

Support now around 0.7880 (GBPEUR sellers at 1.2690) with resistance coming in at 0.7930 (buyers at 1.2610) GBPUSD has strong technical support around 1.5820 and more at 1.5800 but we should expect some stop-loss selling below there. Sellers are still prevailing around 1.5900. Whether we break out of this range before Thursday is debatable.

The Aussie $ resumed its weaker tone as I suggested yesterday and AUDUSD has broken down through strong support at 1.0200 to a low of 1.0166 thus far dragging GBPAUD higher to 1.5592 before capping.

Gold has stalled on this rally ahead of the big $1,701 area but seems to be picking up buyers in the dips to fill the gaps left by last week’s sudden surge which caught a lot of players out.

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Not much in the way of data today but this afternoon’s US Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labour Costs may offer up some clues for Friday’s NFP number.

ParaGB continue to collect medals and break records and I’d like to wish the Men’s Wheelchair Basketball team all the best for their Quarter-Final. I had the privilege of working with the Juniors a few years ago when the Richard Langhorn Trust created the first National Junior Championships at Stoke Mandeville as well as providing a few new sports chairs. I’m thrilled that some of the boys, including Terry Bywater are making such an impact and this thoroughly exciting sport is reaching the audience it deserves. You can read what Terry has to say here. Come on GB !

Interbank Rates at 08:42 BST

Currency Pair





EUR/USD 1.2524 1.2569 1.2516
GBP/USD 1.5854 1.5878 1.5847
EUR/GBP 0.7902 0.7918 0.7894
GBP/EUR 1.2654 1.2669 1.2626
GBP/CHF 1.5202 1.5218 1.5168
GBP/AUD 1.5570 1.5592 1.5509
EUR/CHF 1.2011 1.2015 1.2009
GBP/HKD 12.2916 12.3102 12.2862
EUR/HKD 9.7136 9.7498 9.6978
GBP/ZAR 13.3686 13.4011 13.3087
USD/JPY 78.38 78.54 78.35
GBP/CZK 31.4866 31.5646 31.3266

Today’s Data: BST

10.00-EU – Eurozone Retail Sales

13.30-US – Non-Farm Productivity / Unit Labour Costs

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.

To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com

The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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