Mike Paterson’s Daily Forex Brief

Markets have continued to remain buoyant through Friday and over the week-end but amidst an increasing back-drop of global political unrest can the move be sustained this week?

EURUSD had moved up to 1.3168 on Friday but has since settled down into a 1.3100-1.3150 range as traders re-assess while GBPUSD has been up to 1.6247 before similarly settling back.

Offers are now coming in on EURUSD at 1.3150 and 1.3170 with 1.3169 being the 38.2% technical pullback of the May 2011-July 2012 fall. Support now at 1.3100, 1.3080 with stop loss selling expected at 1.3075 before more bids coming in at 1.3030. Sellers in GBPUSD ahead of 1.6270 and 1.6300 barrier option interest. Support at 1.6215, 1.6185 and 1.6150.

EURGBP has stayed firm as the Pound generally lags behind the resurgent Euro and breached good resistance at 0.8100 (GBPEUR support 1.2346) in this move, reaching a high of 0.8114 (1.2342). Bids now at the 0.8060 (1.2407) pivot, with sellers coming back in at 0.8105-15 and then another strong line at 0.8150.

Equities and Gold have held much of their recent gains with good support in the dips, even though there are plenty of sellers on the rallies.

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Not much in the way of data today but given the geo-political negatives out there it would be reasonable to suggest that after last week’s euphoria we should understandably expect some degree of rationalization this week. Regular observers of the FX market, and indeed this column, however know that rationale doesn’t feature too heavily.

But we are starting to see some consistency come into the Shrimpers season with another 3 point haul on Saturday and only an alphabetical technicality preventing us from surging into the top 8. Bring on league leaders Gillingham tomorrow!

Have a good week out there.

Interbank Rates at 08:44 BST

Currency Pair





EUR/USD 1.3107 1.3141 1.3101
GBP/USD 1.6220 1.6239 1.6212
EUR/GBP 0.8082 0.8098 0.8076
GBP/EUR 1.2370 1.2383 1.2347
GBP/CHF 1.5065 1.5080 1.5008
GBP/AUD 1.5389 1.5432 1.5350
EUR/CHF 1.2173 1.2185 1.2140
GBP/HKD 12.5753 12.5910 12.5692
EUR/HKD 10.1660 10.1976 10.1503
GBP/ZAR 13.3898 13.4528 13.2894
USD/JPY 78.37 78.48 78.16
GBP/CZK 30.2470 30.2835 30.0250

Today’s Data: BST

10.00-EU – Eurozone Trade Balance

13.30-US – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.

To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com

The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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