The Tory leadership contest is hotting up with both candidates appearing to take a more robust stance on Brexit.

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We now have stories emerging of a Boris Johnson plan to form a Brexit War Cabinet to force the UK exit from the EU within his first hundred days as Prime Minister, while Jeremy Hunt is now talking about the possibility of withholding part of the £39 billion so-called Brexit divorce bill.

So, having the true and potentially permanent electoral threat of The Brexit Party is causing the Tory leaders to really up their game it seems.

Boris Johnson's inner Brexit cabinet would be a tightly knit team of senior ministers and advisers says the Telegraph, that would identify and tackle every obstacle to the UK leaving as planned on the 31st of October.

And every member of the wider cabinet will have signed up to the Boris plan of leaving the EU on time, by the 31st of October.

Also, in a move to bolster the UK internally, there are reports that Boris Johnson would add the title 'Minister for the Union' to the PM's official title of 'First Lord of the Treasury'.

The other contender for the Tory leadership, Jeremy Hunt, told the Sunday Times that he would consider withholding some of the £39 billion EU payment, if the UK ended up leaving without a deal saying that under his premiership, "anyone who thinks I am going to write a blank cheque to the European Union is sorely mistaken. As a businessman I always paid my bills. That being said, if we leave without a deal I will not hand over a penny more than is legally required of us."

So, as a House of Lords committee has said we owe the EU nothing, then that payment should be nothing then?

But Jeremy Hunt doesn't stop there. He has upped his Brexit game by saying that he would tell any business that goes bust because of a no deal Brexit that their sacrifice was needed in order to show that the UK is a place where politicians do as the people tell them.

But he also said he would do it with a heavy heart and that he would find support for those companies to help them weather the storms.

But, there is a by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire to be held on the 1st of August where the Tories might lose the seat,

There are also rebels on the Tory benches thought to be prepared to vote against their own government in the case they pursue a no deal Brexit.

As a result we might find that by the time the Tory leadership contest is over, the winner may not have a sufficient majority to hold the confidence of the House of Commons.

One unnamed Cabinet Minister is quoted in the Express as saying:

"The problem is that some of my Remainer colleagues will support a vote of no confidence in Boris. If we lose the by-election in Wales we will have a majority of just two, even with the DUP, so it will only take one or two [Remainer Conservative] MPs to support the vote and we are facing an election."

In this case, unless Jeremy Corbyn who is having his own party tear up over Brexit, or someone else, could hold the confidence of the majority of the house, we are definitely staring at yet another General Election.

Because, as I said in a previous video, Theresa May has to actively recommend her successor to the Monarch and that successor has to be able to command a majority in the house. And the same will apply to her successor, should they get ejected via a vote of no confidence.

And a general election is where Nigel Farage and The Brexit Party could, or should I say would, wreak havoc with both the Tories and Labour.

And The Brexit Party is now on a full general election footing reports the Express, with a vote in October or November looking more and more likely.

The Brexit Party is holding a big meeting in Birmingham today to unveil the first hundred of their potential Westminster candidates as well as some post-Brexit policies.

Now, there is the important point that a general election is, of course, one of the qualifying reasons the EU has laid down for the UK to have another Article 50 extension, isn't it?

So, with two Tory leadership hopefuls ratcheting up the Brexit rhetoric, the only guaranteed way for the pro-Remain parliament to get the extension it so craves, is to force a general election – even if it severely damages the two main parties.

But, if a general election is such a high probability, that would surely mean that the winner of this current Tory leadership contest is facing a tough competition followed very quickly by a surefire loss of a vote of no confidence.

How could they take their party into a general election having just lost a totally predictable vote of confidence in the house where some of their own MPs voted against them?

Makes you wonder why they're trying so hard.

And I would think that any motion bringing forward a vote of no confidence would end up containing the requirement for an Article 50 extension to be negotiated should a general election result.

But under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, the House of Commons can also vote to hold a snap general election as long as two thirds of MPs vote for it.

So maybe there is a plan to call for a general election before the opposition call a vote of no-confidence, because the Tory leader would then be dictating the pace.

But the problem then, would be that MPs would probably only vote for a general election together with another Article 50 extension and maybe even a second EU referendum thrown in for good measure.

And the pressure is on with now only 123 days to go to the latest Brexit date.

Sources:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48814944

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/30/jeremy-hunt-i-would-tell-bust-businesses-no-deal-brexit-was-worth-it

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/30/jeremy-hunt-i-would-tell-bust-businesses-no-deal-brexit-was-worth-it

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1147059/brexit-latest-news-nigel-farage-brexit-party-election-boris-johnson

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