OK, so you’ve all worked it out by now huh? Monday was risk-off; Tuesday was risk-on, yesterday started risk-on then finished risk-off, just for a bit of variety of two trends in one day. And this morning we’re mostly risk-off still.

And it’s all down to “will they or won’t they deliver a solution to the Eurozone/Greek debt crisis this coming week-end”. Nothing of any substance has been out this week but we’ve just been as fickle as fickle can be over the rhetoric coming from all and sundry who want to chip in and take up some hot air space, plus reports that the EFSF bailout find could be €1 trillion rather than €2 trillion.

From looking perky over 1.3800 to start with yesterday EURUSD has just now been down to 1.3673 on reports that the IMF disagrees with the ECB/EU over the sustainability of Greek debt and asking for clarification before the next tranche. We’ve seen our usual Asian sovereign buyers down there and we’ve bounced back to 1.3715 in very nervous trading on a headline that says the EU/IMF tranche not in doubt.

EURGBP gave up yet another advance higher after I put my pen down yesterday as sentiment/optimism turned lower (risk-off for those who haven’t quite got the current lingo yet) and we’ve come all the way back down to support lines now being drawn around 0.8700 (GBPEUR resistance 1.1500).

GBPUSD has followed the trend lower but has lagged behind in its inimitable style (up or down) right now and we’ve seen gains for the Pound against the usual suspects (AUD, ZAR et al) and CHF despite EURCHF peaking at 1.2474 yesterday.

Stock markets look iffy again and Gold is struggling to find new buyers. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a further move lower in this over the next couple of weeks. Watch out if $1580 gives way as that would then target $1450.

Data today includes UK Retail Sales shortly (can’t expect any good news there surely?) and weekly jobless figures and existing home sales in the US coming this afternoon.

Not much more that I can add or suggest right now. I’m not going to waste my time making sense of it, ‘cos there isn’t any sense to be had. Expect the recent range trading, either up or down as traders run and hide, ahead of the week-end. After that things could get very interesting.

Today's Data:


Live Economic Calendar Powered by Forexpros – The Leading Financial Portal

Weekly Economic CalendarHERE

Interbank Rates as of 08.28 BST

Current Price

Overnight

High

Low

EUR/USD

1.3710

1.3784

1.3672

GBP/USD

1.5722

1.5785

1.5691

EUR/GBP

0.8719

0.8734

0.8708

GBP/EUR

1.1464

1.1484

1.1447

GBP/CHF

1.4233

1.4280

1.4202

GBP/AUD

1.5418

1.5483

1.5366

EUR/CHF

1.2409

1.2443

1.2388

GBP/HKD

12.1892

12.2381

12.1652

GBP/ZAR

12.7010

127547

12.6461

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.
To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com
The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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