Jeremy Corbyn By RevolutionBahrainMC (CC-BY-3.0)
There are worrying signs in the polls that support for a Jeremy Corbyn Momentum led Labour Party is creeping up.
PLEASE WATCH THE VIDEO BELOW:
Many of us Brexiteers on the centre right might mock the machinations of Jeremy Corbyn and his Marxist colleagues, but be in no doubt some of their constant and totally mendacious attacks on the Tories over the NHS will stick!
And the architect of the Vote Leave campaign and the advisor to Boris Johnson who engineered getting this election, Dominic Cummings, seems to be of the opinion that the polls have got this all wrong and that the battle is much closer than it might initially look.
This is despite several polls indicating that Boris has something like an 11% lead, which could see him take a majority of about 68 seats.
And because of his fears over Brexit, Cummings has put out a warning message to Brexiteers.
In his latest blogpost, which he calls his Bat Signal, Cummings outlines why he thinks that Brexit is still under threat and has issued a call to vote for the Tories to stop a Corbyn – Sturgeon stitch up for a second EU referendum where EU nationals will also be allowed to vote.
In his blog Cummings writes:
"Days after the 2016 referendum, I emailed all of you to say thanks for your heroic efforts.
"I also said – keep an eye on my blog, if Brexit is in danger then I will send up a ‘bat signal’ here.
"Here we go…"
And more on what he said in a moment.
But first, he has cause to be concerned, Because YouGov is reporting a reversal in Jeremy Corbyn's previously dismal personal approval ratings, which sees him for the first since August post a positive reading.
Forget his personal performances in debates etc. That might be a drag factor – but what we may be witnessing is the two party state re-asserting its authority by a sort of electoral default.
And an indicator of this happening on the left, may be the slow decline in the Lib Dem vote.
This could be a signal that voters on the left and Remainers are beginning to see that the biggest opposition party is the only hope they have of getting the result they want.
While Boris Johnson is squeezing The Brexit Party vote as those on the right and Brexiteers see the largest right wing and Brexit party as their only hope.
Thus the two party state is once again reaffirmed.
Bad news for both Swinson and Farage!
But the two party state now has an added dimension – that of the Scottish National Party.
The SNP can't form a UK government, but it is on course to take 43 seats with just 3% of the national vote – that's 14.3 seats for each percent of the vote they get.
Whereas for the Tories it would be 8.3 and for Labour 6.6.
So, should the Labour vote recover sufficiently over the next two weeks, then we could see another hung parliament and a potential Brexit-busting coalition between Labour and the SNP – and the Lib Dems might also be tempted to join in.
This graph of the latest five Yougov polls shows the risk, with Labour having pulled back from a 17 point deficit a couple of weeks ago, to now be only 11% behind.
And take a look at the Lib Dem Vote that is now slowly receding, as well as that of the Brexit Party, which has been squeezed by both its decision to stand aside in over half the seats available and with Tories potentially returning to more familiar voting ground.
And even the Greens appear to be taking a hit.
And from this line graph going back a bit further you can see that Labour has managed to disentangle itself from the rest and is now gradually narrowing the gap to the Tories and the question is do they have enough time to do it in?
And the fortunes of the Labour Party have come at the expense of the Lib Dems where the steady decline can be more easily seen.
Momentum may be with Labour – in more ways than one.
We must be on our guard.
And remember, they don't have to win a clear majority to stop Brexit.
They need sufficient to form a coalition and we all know the price being bandied about here, don't we?
Yes, a second EU referendum in exchange for a second Scottish independence referendum.
And the Telegraph sees the election battle now coming together around the two main parties.
And the Telegraph quotes Martin Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus, as saying:
"People are not crossing the big fault lines between Labour and the Conservatives."
"They are working out they do live in a First Past the Post system and a vote for a smaller party isn't going to do as much good."
"As we get closer to polling day, if more people make that transition to Labour, that could change everything."
And it is this sort of thinking that has probably spurred Dominic Cummings into sending up his save Brexit Bat Signal.
In his blog article Cummings says that the powerful Remain forces did everything they could to delay Brexit to force another Referendum.
And in the end they could only succeed by using unconstitutional methods to achieve the delay.
"Unprecedented in modern British history and outside all normal civil service rules, a bunch of MPs, some of them working with foreign governments, wrote primary legislation — ‘the Surrender Act’ also known as the Benn Act — without any of the scrutiny of who influenced and who funded it that is normal for legislation." Cummings Writes.
And he goes on to say that:
"…it’s clear that many of these powerful insiders who promised to respect the referendum will do absolutely anything to keep their grip on power and money. They will do anything to stop YOU, normal voters, from taking back control OF THEM."
And they are still at it today, right now.
And then we get to the real point of the post. And that is to answer the question, what must we Brexiteers do to save the nation by ensuring we leave the EU?
And the answer it seems is to talk to as many people face-to-face as we can to tell them why we believe in Brexit.
After studying all the science and data, Cummings says it all boils down to the simple concept of each one of us talking to friends and family.
Make the case that Corbyn means more political upheaval and confusion as well as business uncertainty, as he rushes about the place not dealing with pressing domestic issues while trying to sort out two referendums and largely not knowing which side he is on in either.
But Cummings also wants us to also make the case for voting for Boris Johnson, not Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party.
For Cummings a vote for Farage is a vote for Corbyn and Sturgeon.
I'll let you decide for yourselves on that one.
And Cummings summarises his Bat Signal thus:
"Tell your family and friends face-to-face: if Boris doesn’t get a majority, then Corbyn and Sturgeon will control the government, their official policy is to give the vote to millions of foreign citizens to cheat their second referendum, we’ll all get screwed on taxes, Parliament will drag the whole country into crisis, and immigration will return to being a central issue in politics instead of being marginalised by Brexit…"
And he's absolutely right about the plan to hand votes out to non UK citizens.
It's right there on page 82 of the Labour Party manifesto for a start and it includes everyone over the age of 16.
And the SNP and Lib Dems made no bones about it in the last parliament, they are up for a big increase to those who can vote in UK elections.
And you also might not have heard that the Labour run Welsh Assembly has just voted through a change in the law to allow qualifying foreign nationals to vote in the next assembly elections.
The warning signs are there. So shake out the complacency and keep pressing the Brexit message!
Sources:
