Mike Paterson’s daily Forex brief

I trust you all had a fine and festive Christmas.

Little real movement to report again but that’s to be expected as European traders slowly stumble back to their desks, many probably glad to be escaping the chores and polite conversation with relations they see once a year.

We did see a couple of moves late in NY on Friday with EURGBP breaking up through the 0.8350 resistance area and motoring quickly to 0.8377 (GBPEUR 1.1937) before closing at 0.8365 (1.1955). Since then though we’ve been back down in the equally thin Asian markets to 0.8333, so back in the range again.

The Euro overall is little changed with EURUSD at 1.3070 and EURAUD still knocking around all time lows at 1.12840. There’s been little in the way of news or data to make any impact and nothing on the immediate horizon that looks like it will shake up this current malaise today. Sell orders on EURUSD still around at 1.3120 with buy orders lined up between 1.3000-20.

The Pound too is little changed but if anything slightly softer overall. GBPUSD has sell orders ahead of 1.5700, with larger ones still around 1.5750 Buyers due at 1.5650 and 1.5600.

FX Update

FX Update

On the commodities front oil got a lift late in NY when Iran threatened to block oil exports through the Straits of Hormuz if sanctions are placed on its oil, while Gold has found some good selling interest to knock it back down through $1600 to $1584 as I type. The failure to close above $1623 on the recent rally has prompted this sell-off and there’s a growing feeling that we have to go lower first before we end up higher again.

All in all we should expect a quiet day ahead with perhaps a move or two here and there, but there will be plenty of action to come soon enough.

Today's Data:

10.30-CH-KOF Leading Indicators

12.00-US-MBA Mortgage Applications

Interbank Rates as of 08:45 BST

Current Price

Overnight

High

Low

EUR/USD

1.3072

1.3077

1.3056

GBP/USD

1.5663

1.5676

1.5649

EUR/GBP

0.8344

0.8350

0.8333

GBP/EUR

1.1982

1.2003

1.1975

GBP/CHF

1.4636

1.4664

1.4614

GBP/AUD

1.5397

1.5461

1.5388

EUR/CHF

1.2212

1.2224

1.2200

GBP/HKD

12.1435

12.1536

12.1327

EUR/HKD

10.1347

10.1491

10.1080

GBP/ZAR

12.7444

12.8181

12.7158

USD/JPY

77.72

77.93

77.71

GBP/CZK

3.0900

3.1014

3.0867

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.
To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com
The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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