Mike Paterson’s Daily Forex Brief

It’s been a mixed bag since yesterday’s ECB and BOE decisions to leave everything on hold but the Euro continues to remain in demand, as traders wait for today’s key US jobs data.

EURUSD has rallied again since my afternoon update yesterday which had seen it break 1.3000 but failing to hold. Later in NY trading we saw it move higher to 1.3032 but overnight in Asia it’s failed to make any new ground and traded tightly again.

EURGBP is still well supported but has failed to breach the 0.8060 (1.2406) technical level that I’ve mentioned. Perhaps another spike higher might drag it through. Support now comes in around 0.8015-20.

GBPUSD finally broke higher through 1.6200 but lagged behind EURUSD and was quick to turn back down when the Euro found a few sellers.

Last night the Bank of Japan left interest rates on hold at 0.1% as expected, and this morning see Eurozone GDP and German Factory Orders. But the main act today is the Non-Farm Payrolls/Employment rate data from the US at 13.30 BST.

Given the Fed’s focus on the labour market when introducing QE3 recently the release of the latest report has understandably got traders pausing for thought and loosening up their trigger fingers. The forecast is for around 113k with an unemployment rate worsening slightly to 8.2%. Anything significantly different from that and we’ll see a Friday bun-fight for sure.

England’s women cricketers have done what the men never looked like doing in reaching the World T20 Final in superb fashion and must go in as favourites. While the mighty Shrimpers have been slightly less than successful this week having lost at home and lost momentum in their charge up the table from bottom-place. I still say they’ll hit a top three spot soon enough though even if my earlier prediction of it happening after 10 games is slightly behind the curve!

Have a great week-end.

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Interbank Rates at 08:47 BST

Currency Pair

Current

Overnight

High

Low

EUR/USD 1.3005 1.3023 1.2993
GBP/USD 1.6174 1.6201 1.6172
EUR/GBP 0.8042 0.8045 0.8031
GBP/EUR 1.2436 1.2453 1.2430
GBP/CHF 1.5066 1.5088 1.5057
GBP/AUD 1.5789 1.5823 1.5757
EUR/CHF 1.2115 1.2120 1.2109
GBP/HKD 12.5397 12.5606 12.5381
EUR/HKD 10.0834 10.1050 10.0683
GBP/ZAR 13.9798 14.0008 13.7227
USD/JPY 78.42 78.58 78.27
GBP/CZK 31.0010 31.1361 30.9658

Today’s Data: BST

10.00-EU – Eurozone GDP

11.00-EU – German Factory Orders

13.30-US – Non-Farm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate / Average Earnings

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.

To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com

The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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