Nigel Farage by European Parliament (CC-BY-2.0)

Nigel Farage by European Parliament (CC-BY-2.0)

The Brexit Party leader, Nigel Farage, has fired another broadside at Boris Johnson, claiming that the newly installed Prime Minister will not take us out of the European Union by the 31st of October.

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Nigel Farage has claimed in an interview with The Times, that Boris Johnson will not deliver Brexit by the stated date of Hallowe'en and further that there could well be not one, but two General Elections in the UK within six months.

Farage said that Boris Johnson and the Tories were only riding high in the polls at the moment because voters think he is going to deliver a hard, no-deal Brexit.

But Boris is only saying those things, said Farage, because he wants to suppress The Brexit Party.

"Do I see a clean Brexit?" Said Farage, "No. Do I think there'll be a general election? Yes. Do I think there could be two general elections within six months? Quite probably.

"In terms of Brexit, the really big historic battles are to come."

Nigel Farage has previously said that it looked to him like Boris was going to attempt to get the Irish border backstop removed from the Theresa May Withdrawal Agreement surrender treaty and then try and re-package it as some sort of new Boris Johnson deal.

But that of course would not be really leaving the EU and would actually tie the UK more firmly to the bloc, with no say, especially in the areas of foreign policy, defence and security.

Farage is now saying that there was only a 10-20% chance of the UK leaving and that another delay was more likely.

But, said Farage, The Brexit Party is here to stay and it only exists because the Tories have failed on Brexit.

And he went on to say that the Conservative Party should stand aside in Leave voting constituencies that they stood no chance of winning in, such as Normonton, Pontefract & Castleford, which voted 69% to Leave the EU but has the ultra Remain Labour MP Yvette Cooper.

Now, this constituency used to be just Pontefract & Castleford until the 2010 General Election and had always polled very heavily at about 70% for Labour.

Since 2010 that has been pared back slightly to between 48 and 60% and usually double the vote of the second placed candidate.

In 2010, Yvette Cooper won with over 22,000 votes and the Tories came second with 11,300.

In 2015, Yvette Cooper won with over 25,000 votes and UKIP came second with nearly 10,000 votes.

And in 2017 Yvette Cooper won with over 29,000 votes, the Tories came second with nearly 15,000 and UKIP third with 3,000.

So, a win for anyone other than Labour there would I think be a miracle, especially if The Brexit Party was seen by local voters to be operating closely with the Tories. But then again these are strange times.

And as for a general election happening. Boris Johnson has said he won't be calling one and, even if he did he would need two thirds of MPs to vote for one.

So that leaves the only other route of a vote of no confidence in the government. Something Jeremy Corbyn has said would be at a time of his choosing.

But, as I've said before, as the leader of the official opposition, Jeremy Corbyn is the only person who can initiate a vote of no confidence in the government.

Corbyn will therefore be hoping that once Boris has lost the vote, to either then have a vote of confidence in himself and his team to run the country, or to force a General Election.

On the first point, it is questionable whether Corbyn would be able to win a vote of confidence for himself and on the second of a General Election, according to the House of Commons Library the earliest a General Election can now be held as a result of a vote of no confidence motion is Brexit Day itself, October the 31st – too late to stop Brexit. Unless they ignore the convention of only holding an election on a Thursday.

But many MPs want a vote of no confidence so they can attempt to form what is called a government of national unity around another MP, like the aforementioned Yvette Cooper or maybe Oliver Letwin, so as to extend Article 50 for another referendum.

And remember MPs do get a full two weeks to try and form a new government that has the confidence of the house.

So the question is, if Corbyn thinks that is what MPs are up to, would he go ahead with a motion of no confidence given it could well mean he would personally be out on his ear probably for good as a result?

Unless a group of Tory MPs crossed the floor to the Lib Dems, so stripping Boris Johnson of his majority. The Lib Dems could then offer to back Corbyn as long as he delivers an Article 50 extension and a second EU referendum where Labour campaigns for Remain.

Corbyn might just win it then.

And those Remainer MPs, if they were able to achieve that feat, would not ever allow a General Election – there would be far too many risks with getting the voters involved before they'd had a chance to be 'conditioned'. No, they will be intent on only two things: asking the EU for another Article 50 extension with the express aim of running a second EU referendum.

And the Remainer MPs would then spend all that cash allocated by Boris for no deal preparations, on a massive Project Fear and domestic pro-EU propaganda campaign – while unleashing the Electoral Commission on Brexiteer MPs.

Now all of that is pure supposition of one possible scenario and maybe a bit far fetched. But at the end of the day I think that they only way that Brexit can be stopped is if there were, for whatever reason, another Article 50 extension as revoking it would be a step too far for most MPs. And what they are intent on finding, is the way to force that to happen.

Sources:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1161288/brexit-news-nigel-farage-brexit-party-boris-johnson-october-31-no-deal-brexit

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9645818/nigel-farage-boris-johnson-deal-brexit-party-vote-split/

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