The UK Remain establishment has now proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that it is intent on either full EU membership or for the UK to become a colony of the EU – real independence and real trade deals were never on the table at all.

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From the day after the EU Referendum on the 23rd of June 2016, we had the chance to forge a proper free trade deal with the EU.

As long as we played a hard game and had the no deal option well sorted, we could have won through.

But both Theresa May and the Remain establishment had other ideas and wanted the UK tied permanently in one form or another to the EU and have tried to force that on us by preventing proper planning for either a no deal scenario or for a proper trade deal.

They have therefore forced us into the position that only leaving on WTO terms by the 31st of October 2019, will now suffice to serve democracy.

A trade deal will now be an added bonus.

UKIP leader Gerard Batten recognised this many years ago and the former UKIP leader turned Brexit Party boss, Nigel Farage, campaigned on it during the very recent EU parliament elections where he won a thumping victory.

And now the realisation is beginning to dawn on some of the Conservative Party leadership hopefuls, who are saying we will definitely leave – deal or no deal – on the 31st of October, with Sajid Javid being the latest one to say that he is not frightened of taking the UK out of the EU without a deal and that he would increase no deal Brexit preparations.

Now, there are already a dozen candidates for the job of Conservative Party leader and the thinking is that there could be as many as twenty by the time the applications book is closed.

The first leadership ballot amongst Tory MPs is due on the 13th of June reports ITV News and the ultimate winner should be known by the end of July after the final two candidates left standing face a ballot of all party members.

And from the end of July to the new Brexit day of Hallowe'en, is just three months.

But whoever gets into Number Ten will find that Theresa May has closed off all routes bar four. Beg the EU for yet another extension so the new PM can get his or her head around the problem, push the Withdrawal Agreement surrender treaty through to ratification, revoke the Article 50 letter and remain in the EU for good, or leave on WTO terms on the 31st of October.

And the new PM will step into the place vacated by Theresa May and find they have a 17.4 million vote sized angry rhino reinforced by Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party at their back, while being faced with an EU that refuses to now negotiate any further, a UK parliament implacably opposed to leaving the EU, a smug Remain minded Speaker still sat there pulling the strings and bending the rules of the House of Commons, stalled no deal planning and senior civil servants queueing up on an hourly basis to tell the new PM how impossible Brexit is.

You can almost hear Sir Humphrey Appleby can't you?

"Yes Prime Minister, a no deal Brexit, that would be so courageous of you!"

And with three months to that 'courageous' day, would you trust a newly installed Tory PM, Remainer or Brexiteer, to do anything other than to immediately pick up the hotline to Brussels and say to the Eurocrats that it would be awfully nice to have a little chat about another Article 50 extension just in case … please.

When what they should really be doing is ordering a massive ramping up in no deal planning and being ready to prorogue parliament to prevent Remainer MP interference, if necessary.

Anyway, the first response from Brussels will probably be – ratify the Withdrawal Agreement surrender treaty, otherwise leave with no deal or revoke the Article 50 letter.

But they might cave in a little later saying that an extension would be forthcoming, in return for a second referendum or general election. They might though, in the last few days, grudgingly offer us another extension for a month or so as not to be seen as the bad boys.

Whoever the Prime Minister is should, early on, declare we are leaving without a deal and just get on with it.

But I think they'll spend all their time trying to win Brussels round to another extension, because looking at the polls a general election would wipe both the Tories and Labour out, possibly for good.

I also wonder whether the required two thirds of MPs would actually vote for a general election to take place anyway.

And calling a second referendum leads to Tory party political oblivion.

All I see going forward is more uncertainty, more national humiliation, more time in the EU as Brussels does, at the last moment, give us another extension, while our MPs work tirelessly with the Speaker to get a chance to revoke Article 50.

So, do I trust the Tories to deliver Brexit by the 31st of October? No I do not!

While the only way round all this is the obvious one of just leaving the EU without a deal – and properly preparing for it!

Sources:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-tory-leadership-hopeful-sajid-javid-reveals-he-is-not-afraid-to-take-the-uk-out-a4156856.html

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-05-30/powerful-1922-committee-to-review-tory-leadership-race-rules-as-field-to-replace-theresa-may-swells-to-12/

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