Mike Paterson’s daily Forex brief

Markets have assumed a “rabbit caught in the headlights” position as traders see no reason to second-guess the Greek election fall-out on the 17th June. Of course, we’ll see some kind of moves between now and then but it’s blatantly clear that it’s not only the politicians that haven’t got a clue right now.

It’s been disclosed/discovered that the Greek banks have a €100 billion facility from the ECB known as an ELA ( Emergency Liquidity Assistance) which is helping to prop them up and that Spanish banks could face losses of up to €260 billion according to the IIF (International Institute of Finance).

Good enough reasons for a little Euro sell-off you might think. But no.

We’ve seen EURUSD test above 1.2800 again and EURGBP has been up to challenge 0.8100 again (GBPEUR down to 1.2345) but so far failed to break through.

GBPUSD is still struggling to get through 1.5850 and the Pound overall is still looking top-heavy. Inflation data out at 09.30 BST might shake things up a little though.

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Otherwise not much to report or expect. Stocks still look vulnerable with investors taking a lead from FaceBook. Down 11% at $34.03. $4 lower than the offer price and $9 lower than the launch day peak. A case of the Emperor’s New Clothes methinks.

Congrats to the England cricket team who beat the West Indies as expected but made hard work of it for a while, and particularly to skipper Strauss for his much needed ton and to Stuart Broad with 11 wickets to his name, the first time an Englishman has done so at Lords since 1978 and a certain IT Botham.

I guess it would be churlish then to say it was an Essex boy, Alastair Cook, who guided us safely home once again after early 2nd innings wobbles. Wouldn’t it?

Interbank Rates 07:38 BST

Currency Pair

Current

Overnight

High Low
EUR/USD 1.2793 1.2820 1.2782
GBP/USD 1.5816 1.5838 1.5809
EUR/GBP 0.8090 0.8099 0.8082
GBP/EUR 1.2360 1.2377 1.2345
GBP/CHF 1.4848 1.4862 1.4830
GBP/AUD 1.5935 1.6003 1.5927
EUR/CHF 1.2010 1.2015 1.2009
GBP/HKD 12.2621 12.2792 12.2567
EUR/HKD 9.9208 9.9467 9.9044
GBP/ZAR 13.0293 13.0582 12.9729
USD/JPY 79.45 79.50 79.26
GBP/CZK 31.0875 31.2070 30.9331

Today’s Data: BST

09.30-UK – CPI / RPI / Public Sector Net Borrowing / DCLG House Price Index

15.00-US – Existing Home Sales

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.
To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com
The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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