Mike Paterson’s Daily Forex Brief

In the absence of any major game-changers the FX markets have played safe and stuck to their ranges, possibly with one eye on the next EU summit this Thursday.

EURUSD duly failed to breach the 1.3000 level where I mentioned on Friday that plenty of sellers were lining up and we peaked at 1.2992 before heading back below interim support at 1.2950 and then lower to the next decent support line around 1.2890.

News out over the week-end that China reported a September trade surplus of $27.7 billion with exports rising 9.9% and imports 2.4% gave traders a bit of cheer, but with expectations of this figure falling from here on in due to lack of global demand the mood became rather more muted.

EURUSD has rallied to 1.2962 but with the Chinese feel-good factor waning and with renewed fears over the Eurozone with Portugal coming back into the picture and another EU summit ( yawn ) this Thursday the move has stalled as I type.

EURGBP has been in its current comatose state and traded in an ever-tightening range while GBPUSD has also remained a relative bystander.

The Aussie $ had a rally on the back of the Chinese news but has since gone back into sell mode as traders factor in another interest rate cut next month.

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Forex Update-The Economic Voice Limited

Gold has fallen to $1,741 in line with my reporting last week once we had broken back down through $1,770 and the consensus says there may be more to go before we find a platform for another move higher.

A similar pattern to the mighty Shrimper's’ results of late but a fine 3-0 win away from home saw our heroes leapfrog a few places as their surge for a top three place got back on track.

And congrats to Heather Watson who became the first British woman to collect a WTA trophy since 1988 when she won yesterday’s Japan Open, and to Sebastian Vettel who won the South Korean Grand Prix to lead the driver’s championship and now looks like joining Alonso at Ferrari in 2014.

Have a good week everyone.

Interbank Rates at 08.46 BST

Currency Pair





EUR/USD 1.2949 1.2962 1.2890
GBP/USD 1.6051 1.6085 1.6021
EUR/GBP 0.8065 0.8069 0.8039
GBP/EUR 1.2393 1.2440 1.2390
GBP/CHF 1.4988 1.5031 1.4983
GBP/AUD 1.5681 1.5728 1.5658
EUR/CHF 1.2092 1.2100 1.2078
GBP/HKD 12.4443 12.4707 12.4211
EUR/HKD 10.0414 10.0651 9.9848
GBP/ZAR 14.0500 14.1329 13.9976
USD/JPY 78.57 78.67 78.32
GBP/CZK 30.9281 31.1220 30.8861

Today’s Data: BST

13.30-US – Retail Sales / NY Empire Stare Manufacturing Index

15.00-US – Business Inventories

Agree or disagree? Then please leave a comment in the box below or contact me by e-mail.

Mike ‘Oscar’ Paterson has been in the Forex trenches for nearly three decades working as a senior Spot trader in London at UBS, Chief Dealer FX at the State Bank of Victoria and in charge of Spot CHF at Credit Suisse with a daily turnover in excess of $1.5 billion. Mike now works as an independent consultant providing a fully bespoke service to the corporate and private sectors in physical FX delivery as well as guiding those who wish to improve their currency trading. Mike also presents seminars and workshops and writes for a number of publications.

To contact Mike please call +0044 (0) 1732 700383 or email mike.paterson@economicvoice.com

The views expressed above are those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. MSP Foreign Exchange Services will have no liability for, or to, any persons executing trades based on the content above.

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