UKIP loses 2 points and drops to 17%

Half of voters would vote to leave the EU but this drops to 36% if David Cameron renegotiated the terms of British membership

This week’s Opinium/Observer Political Poll reveals that Labour continue to hold a four point lead with 35% to 31% for the Conservatives. While UKIP’s support is waning, their position is still safe in third place; well ahead of the Liberal Democrats who even having gained a point are still bringing up the rear, with a meagre 7% of the vote:

• Labour support remains the same, leading the way with 35%

• Conservative support also remains unchanged at 31%

• UKIP is down 2 points at 17%

• The Liberal Democrats are up 1 point at 7%

EU in or out?

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EU Flag –

As the debate rumbles on, still more voters are erring on the side of ‘out’. Nearly half of those asked (48%) would vote to leave the EU in a referendum versus 37% who would vote to stay.

If David Cameron were able to renegotiate the terms of membership and recommended staying then this would change to 42% stay, 36% leave. However, 55% think Cameron is ‘unlikely’ to be able to secure a satisfactory renegotiation – just 18% think it’s likely.

A quarter of voters (23%) say that appointing Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European Commission would make them more likely to vote to leave the EU while 43% say it would have no effect. The majority of respondents (63%) however say they’ve never heard of him.

Adam Drummond, Opinium Research comments:

“David Cameron’s influence in this poll is clear to see. While Conservative voters would currently look to leave the EU by 52% to 36%, with Mr Cameron recommending that we stay, this would swing to 53% saying ‘stay’ and 34% that we leave. However, even among his own party there isn’t a great deal of faith that he’ll be able to produce a satisfactory settlement, just 34% of Conservative voters think he’ll be able to pull it off. Meanwhile Jean-Claude Juncker may cause Mr Cameron some political headaches but in the long term this may not be so significant. After weeks of Mr Juncker’s name being all over the news 63% of voters, and 58% of Conservative voters, say they’ve never heard of him.”

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