The latest political opinion poll from ICM in the lead up to the 2017 General Election, puts the Conservative Party firmly in the lead at 47 percent, a one percent drop on last week.

The Labour Party, says ICM, at 33 percent has regained some of the ground it lost in previous months and has “won the short term manifesto battle”, but with a 14 percent lead it is still the Tories election to lose. With the one percent fall in their support and five percent added to Labour's it does mean that the Conservative lead has been slashed by six percent. As they say, a week is a long time in politics and the tide could easily turn again, more than once, in the remaining time before polling day.

Labour’s 33 percent is an increase of five percent on last week, but the gain has not been at the expense of the Conservatives. Like the Tories, the Liberal Democrats and Greens also saw a fall of one percent but UKIP was the biggest loser in the poll dropping by two percent to just four percent, “the lowest online share we have ever allocated to the party” says ICM. Both the SNP and Plaid Cymru recorded no change.

Voting 3 (PD)

The apparent fall in UKIP support is partly due to a change in ICM methodology. Where no UKIP candidate is standing, the online system required that the respondent choose another candidate. “We believe this is a good addition to our polling methods; it will explain part of the further UKIP drop but perhaps not all of it” said ICM.

The poll figures are as follows:

Conservatives 47% (-1)
Labour 33% (+5)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)
SNP 4% (no change)
Plaid Cymru *% (no change)
Green 2% (-1)
UKIP 4% (-2)
Other 1% (no change)

The Labour Party gains should also be viewed as significant as ICM did own to being the ‘stickiest pollster’ for the Conservative Party.

Sample size: 2,014 GB adults aged 18+, conducted online 19-21 may 2017.

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