Now that we look to be on course for a Conservative Party majority government and a Boris Johnson Withdrawal Agreement treaty Brexit, what is the implementation period likely to bring?


One of the concepts in the political declaration that forms the basis for negotiations towards forging our new UK-EU relationship, is that the closer the ties between us, the freer the trade will be.

Which basically means that the more EU based rules and regulations we observe within the UK the more freely the trade will flow – well between the UK and the EU that is. Because the rest of the world may well be kept out as a result of such tight ties.

Something the Eurocrats would love.

So that may well be the route that the EU negotiators try to guide us down as the talks progress.

But the trouble is that the tighter the links with the EU, the less likely that trade deals with nations across the world will able to be negotiated, unless the EU once again does it all for us.

And the Standard reports that, according to Charles Grant, director at the Centre for European Reform, the UK may end up with a Canada minus deal unless we accept to maintain those really close ties with Brussels.

And this he says is down to EU fears of a super competitive 'Singapore-on-Thames'.

So one assumes that Brussels will try, just like before, to inject all sorts of fears about EU-UK trade into the talks that they can and hope that there are still enough pro-EU parliamentarians in play in Westminster to aid their cause.

And writing in Brexit Central, Brexiteer QC Martin Howe, says that the EU will repeat the tactics it used in the EU Withdrawal Agreement negotiations, by trying to convince us that we need to extend the transition phase while we steam towards the 31st December 2020 deadline. All in the hope that they can once again squeeze all manner of concessions from us.

And Howe says one of the main aims of the EU will be to "…push the UK into an agreement which imposes the highest possible barriers against goods imports into the UK from the rest of the world".

With their desired result of maintaining "…tariff-free access for EU goods exports into the UK market, while giving as little away as possible on services (where the UK has a surplus)."

And it will do that, he says, by keeping the UK inside the transition phase for as long as possible while it tries to lock us down.

Now, if we'd been going into the transition phase with the last lot of MPs in parliament, we would be looking at the avid acceptance of extending everything they could into the future, in the hope of reversing Brexit.

But after the General Election this might, and I repeat might, change.

What we need to see is a government with sufficient control over its own MPs to be able to keep the deadline of the 31st of December 2020 in place and, if necessary, we leave the next day without any deal.

Now, one of the worries expressed by Brexiteers had been that the ECJ could impose an implementation period extension on us, via ECJ supremacy, over the coming year.

But Martin Howe refutes this and says that such an extension could only come about through a sovereign decision by the UK.

And that now means we need a large enough Brexit majority of Tory and Brexit supporting MPs to prevent that coming about.

Oh, and more no-deal preparations too – don't forget, we need that as an insurance policy.

So let's see what the election throws up.

Now here's a quick snippet of news for you.

According to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Telegraph, support amongst the working classes for the Tory party has surged in the last couple of years.

In 2017 42% of the DE social group of working class and non working people would vote for the Labour Party and 35% for the Tories.

But, in a big reversal, now in 2019, 43% of them would vote Tory and only 28% would vote for Labour.

And the Telegraph says:

"…since the UK voted to leave the European Union in 2016, the largely Remain voting so-called metropolitan liberal elite have pivoted to the Liberal Democrats. Conversely, working-class Leave voters are increasingly backing the Prime Minister’s promise to ‘get Brexit done’ in the face of Labour prevarication over a second referendum."

But remember this is a Brexit based election. So this result may just be a reflection of something I've experienced many times – before, during and after the EU Referendum in 2016.

And that is that the more well heeled traditional Tory supporters were actually more likely to be Remainers and those that lived in the less wealthy areas were more likely to favour leaving the EU.

Might have something to do with those more likely to have second and third homes in France and Spain maybe.

Or it might be a welcome resurgence of a more aspirational quality amongst our voters.

Who knows.

So, the EU Commission has started EU infringement proceedings against the UK for not coming up with a name, a female name at that, for a new EU Commissioner.

Now Boris said initially that he would never appoint one and, even though the UK has a legal duty to appoint one under the Treaties and a related EU Council decision, the general thinking had been that it would quietly slip under the radar until after we'd left on the 31st of January next year.

And the General Election has also interfered in this process, as once election purdah kicks in it would be improper to make such an international appointment.

But the EU is demanding an answer with a name by the 22nd of November.

Remember that Ursula von der Leyen, had been due to take over as the EU Commission president on the 1st of November, but because three new Commissioners had been turned down, and that's not including the UK, then this was put back to the 1st of December.

So, if she gets the other three in place, these proceedings may just be a way of legally ticking the UK box so she can start her administration at the start of next month.

Just a thought.

Now according to reports, Nigel Farage has not put forward a full slate of candidates to contest all non Tory held seats.

It seems that his Brexit Party has come up short in 39 constituencies including the following more critical marginals:

Dudley North is one of them, where The Labour Party's Ian Austin won a mere 22 vote majority over Les Jones of the Tories in 2017 and where UKIP came a very distant third.

The Brexit Party candidate, Rupert Lowe, withdrew at the last moment and there are four candidates in Dudley North this time, Labour, Tory, Green and Lib Dem.

In Bristol North West, Labour gained a 4,761 majority over the Tories in the last General Election with the Lib Dems in a very distant third place.

This time we have Labour, Tories, Lib Dems and Greens standing.

Then there's Canterbury, where Labour has a very small majority of 187 over the Conservative Party and once again the Lib Dems came a distant third in the last election.

And Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and an independent candidate are standing here.

In Central Ayrshire, the SNP managed to get a 1,267 majority over the Tories in 2017 with Labour in a very creditable third place.

In this election Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and of course the SNP are standing.

And in North East Fife, The SNP has a wafer thin majority of just two over the Lib Dems with the Tories just 3,000 votes behind them both.

This time we will see Labour, the Tories the Lib Dems and the SNP on the ballot paper.

In North Ayrshire and Arran, the SNP hold a 3,633 majority over the Tories with Labour in third, only 1.000 votes or so behind.

This time will see Labour, the Tories, the SNP, the LibDems and the Greens in the running.

Then in Lanark and Hamilton East, the SNP have a 266 majority over the Tories with Labour breathing down their necks, fewer than 100 votes behind.

Labour, the Tories the Lib Dems and the SNP are on the ballot paper here.

Finally in Argyll and Bute, the SNP are once again ahead of the Tories, this time by 1,328 votes with the Lib Dems quite a way back.

This time it will be between Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and the SNP.

So, if he has pulled back from those 39 seats that leaves 293 seats where you will see a Brexit Party candidate.

That will result in not only a much lower vote share for the election, but it will also hammer the party's poll ratings overall when this starts to be factored in by the likes of Comres and YouGov.

And going back to Dudley North for a moment, where the Brexit Party candidate Rupert Lowe pulled out saying he'd put country before party, speaking on Sky News an obviously upset and angry Nigel Farage begged to differ and he said:

"I think Mr Lowe will no doubt have been offered something very, very nice in return."

And he went on to say that the Tories had been handing out promises to Brexit Party candidates of peerages and positions on negotiating teams, if they pulled out of the General Election race.

"This is corruption of the worst level it's why British politics needs to change". Farage said.

Strong words against one of his former colleagues, strong words indeed!

And the sad truth is that this might be something that could damage what's left of his electoral campaign.

And finally, when told that the Labour Party would hand out free fibre, if they got into power, one little old lady said it was a marvellous idea, as a healthy dose of fibre and prunes every day kept her going.


If Boris Johnson secures a majority, the transition period will not be extended beyond next year

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