Why, oh, why, are our politicians so eager to allow the EU to lead them down the path and into a massive great open bear-trap?

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Now, in case you haven't heard, the UK Permanent Representative to the EU, Ambassador Sir Tim Barrow, has sent an official letter to the EU Council President, Donald Tusk, confirming that the offer of an extension to the Article 50 process has been officially accepted.

So, as long as a statutory instrument is used to amend the Withdrawal Act 2018, then we will no longer leave the EU at 11 pm on the 29th March 2019.

There are also rumours that Theresa May has pulled having a third meaningful vote (MV3) on her deal, as she cannot get the support she needs and also because John Bercow has ruled it out anyway.

Up until now I have tried to stay as positive as possible and I do still think that there are big obstacles in the way of those trying to reverse Brexit.

But by moving the Brexit timetable, Theresa May has ensured that those obstacles are now far less of an obstruction than they should be.

So why do I think that this short extension to the 12th of April is a big trap?

Well, the PM has already signalled that MPs will get a chance next week to give indicative votes on the way forward.

But there is no longer any trust in the PM, so with just a few days left, I think that we will see parliament first ditch her deal for good, then be given the chance to strip government of its control over House of Commons business, so taking over the Brexit process.

MPs will then, as a priority, need to force legislation through to allow the EU parliament elections to take place in the UK and commit to them. Without this being in place and running before the 12th April the UK will not get any further extensions and be out of the EU on WTO terms.

MPs may also try to pass binding legislation that rules out, in statute law, a no deal WTO Brexit.

But they will only have two weeks to do all of this.

And during this time they will also be trying to get a consensus amongst themselves for a way ahead that they can go to the EU Council with and say here's a good reason to extend Article 50 for two years.

And that would probably have to include a general election, a second referendum or a totally new approach to a deal that was acceptable to the EU27.

Now, without an EU compliant consensus, MPs could well fail to get the extension and we could still leave on the 12th April with no deal.

And if MPs did manage to get a consensus, then the trap of the EU attaching a lot of very politically and economically expensive conditions to any extension they did give us, could be sprung.

But under all that pressure, the only last minute consensus they might end up with, is a total revocation of the Article 50 letter and a reversal of Brexit.

And then they would try and convince themselves and us that revocation is just to give the UK time to get its bearings before having another go, which we all know is just plain lies.

But when MPs get to this point, we will be well inside the extra two weeks if not near the end of it.

That's when they would realise that they need time to get the relevant laws in place.

And when the UK asked the EU for more time to get the revocation legislation through, Brussels might well spring the big trap of insisting that the UK first signs a treaty with the other 27 EU member states to unilaterally and permanently waive its rights under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. So locking the UK into the EU forever.

Further, it could ask the UK to bind itself, within a short and specified timeframe, to all the requirements under the Lisbon Treaty.

In this manner, the EU could stop the UK ever leaving while tying us in to the Eurozone, the Schengen zone, the new EU military structure, stripping the UK of its rebates and putting us under permanent EU financial control.

They will smile at us and shrug their shoulders saying that it's just so that they can protect themselves against a new UK government in a few months time changing this troublesome nation's mind.

And at that last-minute stage in the process, I think our totally EU-biddable politicians would sign whatever is poked under their noses by the Eurocrats.

But, as an optimistic sort of fellow, I do hope that the legislative obstacles that face those that wish to keep us in the EU are large enough to prevent a Brexit reversal, even with a two week Article 50 extension.

This though, is where we could now see the might of the establishment machine gear up into maximum action to reverse in a few days what has been, in all, over four years in the making.

We could now witness at first hand what the state can do when it really sets its mind and will to the task.

And the rest of us will watch and just ask ourselves, why couldn't they do that to follow the wishes of the people and leave the EU?

We could be about to see the climb-down of all climb-downs – led by our elected representatives in parliament and keenly and ably abetted by their counterparts in the House of Lords as well as the Civil Service.

And on a side note, the Conservative Party also now faces a huge drubbing in the local elections on the second of May. But I think they may already have written those off anyway.

Now, this is just pure personal speculation to indicate how those fourteen days could well become a pressure cooker of a trap to force our politicians to act in haste and knee jerk the country into either a lengthy extension with a chance to reverse Brexit, or reversing Brexit altogether. But with both carrying a heavy political and economic cost.

So, please let us all know what you think by leaving a comment below.

Thank you for watching.

Sources:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/788383/Confirmation_of_UK_Government_Agreement_to_Article_50_Extension__1_.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/788448/Council_Decision.pdf

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