Boris Johnson By FCO (CC-BY-2.0)

Well, if you wanted a good excuse to vote for a Boris Johnson Conservative Party government, then here it is.

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Boris Johnson has said that if we vote him in with a good majority, then he will push on with getting his Brexit legislation, the Withdrawal Agreement bill, through parliament straight away to give the UK an early Christmas present.

And this would mean, says Number Ten, a Queen's Speech on Thursday the 19th of December with the ceremonial elements being pared down.

And given that, Sky News says that:

"The planned date of the Queen's Speech raises the prospect of MPs potentially having to sit on Christmas Eve and Boxing Day to debate and vote on Brexit legislation."

Oh goody, a welcome to the real world for our politicians!

Now I'm not a Scrooge or a Grinch, but I just remember the wailing from some MPs when they were required to sit on 'Super Saturday' for the first weekend sitting in decades to debate Brexit.

And their caterwauling came after they'd already demanded that parliament sit 24/7 up until the previous Brexit Day of the 31st of October.

So, for me, seeing MPs joining in with all those soldiers, sailors, air force personnel, police officers, prison officers, doctors and nurses etc many of whom will be on duty at that time, levels up the playing field just a little bit.

And you never know, it might catch on.

The only drawback, is that the ordinary staff in Westminster will also have to turn up – but hopefully they would get overtime pay for it.

So, we now have a former UK prime minister who wants to inflict another damaging hung parliament on the long-suffering UK.

Tony Blair, the man who is loved across the length and breadth of the UK for his contribution to world peace, has now decided that the best way ahead for this country, is to have a situation where neither Boris Johnson nor Jeremy Corbyn can lead a government.

But to have instead the Remainer MPs in parliament getting together to form a government of national unity around someone else – in fact, just about anybody else will do, it seems.

So what Blair wants, is just about the same situation that ground parliament to a halt in the first place and ended up in us having this general election.

And the very reason we are having this general election, is to get out of the situation that Blair wants to get us back into.

And to make this come about, he is calling for people to vote tactically to make the country effectively ungovernable.

In his sad attempt to keep the UK in the European Union he is prepared to ensure that the next government is as dysfunctional as the last one.

But I expect he has a well researched and watertight dossier to back up his argument …….?

And the Huffington post says:

"Choosing his words carefully to avoid getting expelled from Labour, Blair said he would personally vote for his party but said he could "understand" why people in his own local constituency in central London would back Liberal Democrat Chuka Umunna."

And it reports Blair saying:

"I can understand why people I know in the same constituency as me will be voting for Chuka….The Liberal Democrats can't form a government, but they can play an important role in who does govern."

Chuka may not be so keen to get a Tony Blair endorsement though, as nowadays it's probably more akin to a bride having horse manure poured over her head before walking down the aisle.

Blair was also asked about the suitability of Corbyn to be Prime Minister and he answered:

"I'm choosing my words carefully, because we're in the middle of an election campaign.

"And my differences with Jeremy Corbyn are pretty well documented and my views haven't changed, put it like that. But I think if the polls are right, there is a negligible chance of a Labour majority."

Tony Blair knows Jeremy Corbyn is going to lose – and lose big – unless Boris Johnson really snarls it up in the next 17 days.

For Blair, that will see his Labour Party taken out for a generation and the UK freed, well mostly freed, from the clutches of his beloved EU.

No wonder Michael Deacon in the Telegraph wrote that:

"Tony Blair isn't happy. You can see it in his smile. Gone is the Cheshire Cat grin of old: the grin of triumph, and of invincible conviction. Now it's barely a smile at all. It's more a grimace, or a wince: pained, pleading, weary, the eyes darting about anxiously, as if hunting for the emergency exit.

"Today Mr Blair went to Canary Wharf in London to give a speech about the election and the state of politics. Well, I say a speech. But really it felt like a sigh: a great long uninterrupted sigh about how terrible everything is now, and how much better it used to be."

I would go further, Tony Blair thought he'd created a Labour Party empire to oversee EU driven left wing rule over the UK for ever more, but now the whole thing lies in ruins.

His much-celebrated-at-the-time 'third way', has turned into a one way street to a junk yard.

But calling on voters to set up their own parliament for failure, is surely the second most delusional thing he's done, with the most delusional being that he thinks people are listening and will actually do what he asks.

Message to Tony Blair – the nation has moved on, even if you haven't.

And now for some more polling data, after all this is a general election, isn't it?

And today the General Election prediction comes from Electoral Calculus – and it won't be music to the ears of Tony Blair either.

And the basis for this, is totting up opinion polls taken over the period from the 18th of November to the 23rd of November – sampling nearly 12,000 people.

This predictor puts the Tories on 42.7% of the vote with Labour in second place on 30.1%.

And as you can see from this graph, Electoral Calculus has transposed these vote shares into how many seats each party would get.

The data also shows low and high seat predictions as well.

Now from this the Tories are predicted to get 359 seats, with a low possibility of 272 and a high possibility of 444 seats.

While Labour would only get 208 seats with a low seat possibility of just 125 and a high seat possibility of 283 seats, which is only just above the aforementioned Tory low seat projection of 272.

The SNP would get 41 seats with just 3.6% of the vote, while the Lib Dems would get 20 seats with 15% of the vote.

Then comes the DUP with 8 seats, Sinn Fein with 7, Plaid with 3, the Northern Ireland Alliance Party would also get 3 seats and the Greens one.

The end result would be a Tory majority of 68 seats.

Which, on the face of it, looks more than enough for Boris to get his Brexit Withdrawal Agreement treaty through in fairly short order – as long as his MPs can be relied on to toe his line of course.

And keeping his MPs in line won't be his only problem.

Because as soon as Brexit Day passes, he will need to dive straight into more Brexit negotiations with the EU regarding our future relationship with the bloc.

And the Telegraph reports that the first item on the EU agenda will be to demand access for its fishing vessels into UK waters as a condition for any future trade deal.

With one EU diplomat telling the Telegraph – "That will be the day that reality hits home."

With another saying that fishing would be the first flashpoint.

For me, total control over our own 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is a litmus test of a true Brexit.

And as far as I can see, the EU regards its continued control over our 200 mile zone as a litmus test on how successful their negotiations with the UK have been.

They will regard forcing the UK to keep EU fishing vessels in our waters as a major political victory.

Forcing us watch their trawlers harvesting our fish while our own coastal communities lie idle will all be part of some sort of Brexit punishment they wish to inflict on us.

So expect them to push very, very hard on this one.

And also be on your guard for the first inch of Boris Brexit backsliding over control of our waters.

Sources:

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-mps-could-vote-on-boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-before-christmas-if-tories-win-11870066

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-50544243

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/25/tony-blair-gave-speech-state-british-politics-sounded-close/

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