Theresa May By UKHomeOffice (CC-BY-2.0)

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Will we be seeing Theresa May's non-Brexit deal back for a vote this week? Well I for one hope not!


So, Theresa May's non-Brexit Withdrawal Agreement might not be finding its way into the House of Commons for a debate and vote quite as soon as expected.

Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr show this morning, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, said that the PM's deal would only be put before the House for a third time, if it had the support of the DUP and Tory MPs. He also said that the government did not yet have the numbers to do so and that it was a work in progress.

And he also agreed with what I've been banging on about for a while, that it is 'physically impossible' to get the non-Brexit Withdrawal Agreement through the whole legislative process without what he called a 'short extension' of the Article 50 process.

The International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox, also said as much when he told Sky's Sophy Ridge that it would be difficult to justify a vote if they knew they were going to lose it.

And according to the FT, Downing Street officials said there would be no vote this week unless there was a "high degree of confidence in winning it".

Now any sane person looking on would think, 'well that means May's deal is down the plughole permanently then, because no-one would ever vote for that would they'.

The trouble is that she lost the first vote by a record, crushing 230 votes. But the second a mere month later was a little tighter as she lost it by 149 votes.

So without any substantial changes to her deal but with a huge clock slowly ticking the time down to a no Deal Brexit, she was able to bring 81 MPs across to her vassal state UK vision.

The question is, how many more of these MPs will prove to be weak or morally malleable in the coming days?

But even if they are, is it a cert that Article 50 will be extended a short while of two or maybe three months for this? I would say not. Because the EU has seen how divided the UK parliament is and with just one bill of many, the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill, that could take up to six months to get through to Royal Assent to make Theresa May's deal legal, it may just be a bridge too far for them.

Let's be realistic about this now.

A short extension to Article 50 may well not end up with a deal anyway, it could end up with another extension, or it could end up with an attempt at revoking the Article 50 process and reversing Brexit, in fact it could end up with a no deal WTO Brexit anyway.

A short Article 50 extension is therefore a recipe for just more political and economic uncertainty.

Actually, the one thing that is absolutely certain right now, is that the only way to leave the EU at 11 pm on the 29th of March 2019 is to do so under WTO terms. No other option or deal is possible.

And I would go further and say that it would be impossible to do anything else by that date.

The UK would have to extend Article 50 by several months to sort out this deal or another deal and yes, even to sort out totally reversing Brexit would, I think, need an Article 50 extension.

So you can see that most of those used to polishing their backsides on the green benches of Westminster will be very keen on extending Article 50, bot most of them for very, very different reasons.

And this makes it extremely difficult for those wishing for an Article 50 extension to put together a single, credible and coherent reason to put forward to the EU for doing so.

This therefore makes it extremely difficult for the EU27 to justify agreeing to an extension that has no single clear and coherent reason supporting it.

But just as in anything else, those on our side that wish to leave the EU cannot rely on chaos on the Remain side to lead to a Brexit victory.

We must be ready for all eventualities and that includes being ready to stand candidates in EU MEP Parliamentary elections should the Establishment manage, against the odds, to swing a lengthy Article 50 extension.

At the nend of the day we need to keep Theresa May's deal away from parliament for as long as possible while the clock winds down. Because with every day that passes, the chances of MPs getting together with any sort of agreement for a reason to extend Article 50, diminishes from the minuscule towards outright zero!

Finally, you may not have heard this yet, but the UKIP official YouTube channel has just doubled its subscriber base in less that a month, to circa 28,000, which takes it past the Labour and Conservative YouTube presences.

Well done the UKIP team, and keep the pressure on!

So, please let us all know what you think by leaving a comment below.

Thank you for watching.


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