Boris Johnson By FCO (CC-BY-2.0)-small

Image by FCO (CC-BY-2.0)-small

As it looks more and more likely that Boris Johnson will become the next PM, his Conservative Party is seeing a continual improvement in poll ratings.


The latest YouGov Westminster voting intentions poll for The Times shows the Tories on a healthy lead and presumably benefiting from a Boris Bounce.

But remember, this is just a poll of 1,749 people.

As you can see from the graph, The Conservatives are now on 25%, an increase of one point from last week.

YouGov Times WV! 18-07-19

While Labour has also managed to recover some ground and is now in a clear second place with 21% having also gone up by a point. And I'm going to love saying this – all despite Jeremy Corbyn!

The Lib Dems have also gained a point to take them to 20%. Now, do remember that this party is also in the throes of a leadership election between Jo Swinson and Ed Davey. But I do have to wonder if, in reality, it matters which of them wins next week.

But The Brexit Party has shed a couple of points to leave it in fourth place with 19%.

Now, the Tory lead is most probably down to the likelihood of Boris Johnson becoming the new Tory leader and Prime Minister.

But remember that his opponent in the race for Number Ten, Jeremy Hunt, has also been advocating a harder stance of taking the UK out of the EU by the Hallowe'en deadline.

This could well further bolster the Tory position given that both leadership candidates are getting hotter on Brexit.

Now, although the Labour Party has a very confusing Brexit policy, it has recovered some support. And this may actually be down more to the resurgence of the Tories than anything else. A sort of electoral hedging, if you like.

The Lib Dems are also holding up well with its message of being the party of Remain.

The repercussions for The Brexit Party though, are that it has seen a reduction in support of 2%.

One assumes that this is as a direct result of some returning to the Tories and maybe some Labour Leave voters have decided to return to Labour to offset a potentially rampant Tory party. Who knows?

But this will give The leader of The Brexit Party, Nigel Farage, something to ponder on.

The YouGov poll respondents were also asked to say whether they thought the decision of voters to Leave the EU was right or wrong.

40% said it was right to leave – a decrease of one point, 47% said it was wrong to Leave – also a drop of one point and 12% didn't know – an increase of one point.

Now I know that ads up to only 99%, but they are not my figures so there was obviously some rounding down in the data somewhere.

When poll respondents were asked to select the most important three out of 14 political issues, 67% named Brexit, 32% said it was health, 29% said Crime, 26% said the economy, as well as the environment and 23% said immigration and asylum.

Now, there is of course the Brecon and Radnorshire by election coming up in two weeks today, Thursday the 1st of August. And I gather the pundits and bookies have this one down as an easy Lib Dem win with the Tories well behind in second place and The Brexit Party third. Not that it's gained much publicity.

I wonder if the Tories are now kicking themselves for not going with a different candidate, given that it was their man that caused this by-election via the recall procedure in the first place and could well end up by eroding their majority.

Or will we see an upset?


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